939
FXCA20 KWBC 191806
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
106 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 NOVEMBER 2025 AT 1800 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
THE BAHAMAS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW-LEVEL HIGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ENHANCE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION. OVER PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA. AFTER
THURSDAY, HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION. JAMAICA CAN EXPECT LIGHT RAINFALL EACH DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVORING PASSING
SHOWERS.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS REFLECTED AT MID- AND LOW-LEVELS,
IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS THROUGH BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AND SONORA TODAY AND THURSDAY, CAUSING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 20-40MM. LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY, BUT MORE
RAINFALL IS PROJECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AND 20-45MM FOR NORTHWESTERN SONORA THAT DAY.
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN INTO BELIZE STARTING LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE RAINFALL IN THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO
RELATIVELY LOW VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH AFFECTING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL APPROACH EASTERN NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA TODAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. THE
PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF
GUYANA, NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA, AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SOME SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TODAY, BUT THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY DECREASE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE
WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA, AS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ADVECT MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TOWARDS THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REST OF
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA CAN EXPECT RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING, MOISTURE ADVECTION, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 20/00 20/12 21/00 21/12 22/00 22/12 23/00
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