469
FXUS01 KWBC 192050
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
VALID 00Z THU NOV 20 2025 - 00Z SAT NOV 22 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...
...YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
...SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR BREAK DAILY RECORDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, INCLUDING THE CITY OF DEL RIO AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU REGION. A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
PROMPTED FOR THE END OF TODAY'S DAY 1 PERIOD, 6Z-12Z PRIMARILY,
AND THEN CONTINUING INTO DAY 2 (TOMORROW). THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE
OF ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WITH HIGH RATES MAKES IT POSSIBLE THAT 3-5
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY MAKES IT EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO WATER RUNOFF DESPITE THE
SOILS BEING RELATIVELY DRY GOING INTO THE EVENT. FOLLOW LOCAL
OFFICIAL AND KEEP INFORMED WITH LOCAL OFFICE WARNINGS.
MOREOVER, THERE WILL BE A TARGETED FLASH FLOODING RISK FROM
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
EMBEDDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ENTERS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN OUT-LOOKED FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. THEN, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY FROM TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, AND THE OZARKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE INSTABILITY TO GROW IN THE AFTERNOON
MAKES IT POSSIBLE FOR SUPER-CELLULAR AND MULTI-CELL STORM MODES
THAT COULD CONTAIN HAZARDS OF SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER VALLEY, PER THE SPC.
A SOGGY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE TOMORROW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF AND OCCLUDES OFFSHORE THE LA METRO
ON FRIDAY. THE INCOMING SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH LESS PROLIFIC OF A
RAINFALL MAKERS AS PREVIOUS STORMS, BUT AN INCH OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SATURATED SOILS MAY STILL WARRANT AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD RISK. THEREFORE, WPC HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FRONT MOVING THOUGH NEW MEXICO WILL PROVIDE CHANCES
FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SAN JUANS FROM NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AROUND
4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ACTIVE INTO TOMORROW. MOREOVER, THE CUT-OFF LOW
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY BRING 5-10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
IN THE SAN BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAIN RANGES. A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE SAYING WHAT WINTER WEATHER AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY BREAK OR NEAR DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND BE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
CLIMATOLOGY. GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL.
WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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