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FXUS05 KWBC 201331
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
LA NIñA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. LA NIñA IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK. A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SPRING 2026.
THE DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY (DJF) 2025-26 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST, SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST,
TEXAS, THE SOUTHWEST, AND CALIFORNIA. THE DJF TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK LEANS TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WEST TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF BELOW (ABOVE)-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
(NORTHWESTERN) ALASKA.
THE DJF PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, TEXAS,
THE SOUTHWEST, AND CALIFORNIA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW (ABOVE)-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN (NORTHWESTERN) ALASKA.
AREAS DEPICTED IN WHITE AND LABELED "EQUAL-CHANCES" OR "EC" ARE REGIONS WHERE
CLIMATE SIGNALS ARE WEAK, AND SO THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR EITHER ABOVE-,
NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
WEEKLY OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE NIñO 3.4 REGION ARE
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LATEST
WEEKLY SST DEPARTURE, CENTERED ON NOVEMBER 12, IS -0.7 DEGREES C. THE NEGATIVE
SST ANOMALIES RECENTLY EXPANDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER, SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES (AVERAGED FROM 180-100W AND 0-300 METERS DEPTH) HAVE REMAINED
NEGATIVE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MAGNITUDE.
FROM OCTOBER 17 TO NOVEMBER 11, NEGATIVE OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR)
ANOMALIES (ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION) CONTINUED OVER INDONESIA,
SOUTHEAST ASIA, THE PHILIPPINES, AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. CONVERSELY,
POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES (SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION) WERE OBSERVED
AT AND NEAR THE DATE LINE. LOW-LEVEL (850-HPA) WIND ANOMALIES WERE EASTERLY
FROM THE WESTERN TO THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL (200-HPA) WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY OVER MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. THESE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS REFLECT LA NIñA CONDITIONS.
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) SLOWED AND WEAKENED DURING MID-NOVEMBER AS
IT DESTRUCTIVELY INTERFERED WITH THE LA NIñA BACKGROUND STATE. DYNAMICAL MODEL
REALTIME MULTIVARIATE MJO (RMM) FORECASTS DEPICT A STRENGTHENING MJO WITH
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OVER THE WEST PACIFIC FROM LATE NOVEMBER TO THE BEGINNING
OF DECEMBER. THE EXTRATROPICAL RESPONSE, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST PACIFIC MJO,
FAVORS AN AMPLIFYING 500-HPA RIDGE (TROUGH) OVER ALASKA (WEST-CENTRAL CONUS) BY
THE END OF NOVEMBER WHICH WOULD PROMOTE ANOMALOUS COLD TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER 48 STATES.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST FOR NIñO 3.4 DEPICTS LA NIñA CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST DJF AS THE SST ANOMALY REMAINS NEAR -0.5 DEGREES C.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SSTS
BECOME CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY LATER IN THE WINTER OR EARLY NEXT SPRING. THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE (C3S) MEMBERS DEPICT A SIMILAR TIMING OF WHEN
THE TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS HAPPENS. THE CPC ENSO OUTLOOK
INDICATES THAT LA NIñA IS FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH DJF BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH. ENSO-NEUTRAL IS STRONGLY
FAVORED (NEAR OR MORE THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE) THROUGH THE 2026 SPRING.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR DJF 2025-26 WERE BASED ON LA
NIñA COMPOSITES, EXPECTATIONS FOR PERIODS OF A NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION, THE
NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), AND THE COPERNICUS (C3S)
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM. A CALIBRATION, BRIDGING, AND MERGING (CBAM)
VERSION OF THE NMME WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. AN OBJECTIVE, HISTORICAL
SKILL-WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION THAT INCLUDES THE NMME ALONG WITH STATISTICAL
TOOLS SUCH AS THE SST-BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOG AND THE ENSO-OCN WAS USED
THROUGH APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2026. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE CONSOLIDATION ONLY INCLUDES
STATISTICAL TOOLS. LONG-TERM CLIMATE TRENDS WERE CONSIDERED FOR ALL LEADS, BUT
WERE RELIED UPON MOST DURING THE SUMMER AND FALL 2026.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - DJF 2025 TO DJF 2026
TEMPERATURE
THE DJF TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK WAS BASED LARGELY ON LA NIñA COMPOSITES, THE
CALIBRATED NMME WHERE IT IS MORE SKILLFUL OVER PREVIOUS WINTER SEASONS, AND THE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL. HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING HAS BEEN QUITE PREVALENT SINCE
MID-OCTOBER WITH THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) IN A NEGATIVE PHASE FOR MUCH OF
THE PAST MONTH. THE GEFS AND ECENS FAVOR A PERSISTENCE OF A NEGATIVE AO INTO
THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND PROPAGATE EAST OVER THE WEST PACIFIC (PHASE 7). THIS MJO
EVOLUTION CAN LEAD TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND AN OUTBREAK
OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO
EASTERN CONUS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE AO AND AN EXPECTED MJO INFLUENCE,
EARLY DECEMBER IS LIKELY TO BE COLDER-THAN-NORMAL ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE
DECEMBER OUTLOOK DEPICTS ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR
THIS REGION. THIS FAVORED COLDER-THAN-NORMAL FORECAST FOR DECEMBER WAS A FACTOR
IN EXPANDING THE SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS BELOW SOUTHEASTWARD COMPARED TO THE DJF
OUTLOOK RELEASED IN OCTOBER. IN ADDITION TO THE NEGATIVE AO AND MJO INFLUENCES,
THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRETCHED AND DISPLACED
OFF THE NORTH POLE. ALTHOUGH A MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (SSW) IS NOT
FORECAST BY THE GEFS, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM NOVEMBER 18 DEPICTS A SLIGHT
REVERSAL OF 10-HPA ZONAL WINDS AT 60N CONSISTENT WITH A SSW, WHICH COULD
PROLONG THE NEGATIVE AO. A SSW WOULD BE VERY RARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EVEN
IF A SSW DOES NOT OCCUR DURING LATE NOVEMBER, THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTIONS AND A MAJOR SSW WITH IMPACTS TO THE
TROPOSPHERE LATER THIS WINTER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL THIS WINTER WHICH IS TYPICAL DURING LA
NIñA. THE DJF OUTLOOK LEANS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCUR MOST FREQUENTLY DURING LA NIñA WINTERS AND THERE IS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL. THE CALIBRATED NMME SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY AMONG THE TOOLS, THE HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN THE DJF TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE) ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. IN BETWEEN THE
FAVORED ABOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND BELOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH, EQUAL
CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY THIS WINTER. THE
ALASKA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA COMPOSITES AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH CALL FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW (ABOVE)-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN (NORTHWESTERN) ALASKA.
THE JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) AND FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF A NEGATIVE AO PHASE AND
AT LEAST ONE ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK IN JANUARY AND/OR FEBRUARY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN 50
PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING JFM AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
TEMPERED DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF A HIGHLY VARIABLE PATTERN WITHIN THIS
THREE-MONTH PERIOD. BY APRIL-MAY-JUNE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME THE
MOST LIKELY CATEGORY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES AND ALASKA, AND THEN
THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN IS FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER CONSISTENT WITH LONG-TERM TRENDS.
PRECIPITATION
THE DJF PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA COMPOSITES AS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS TYPICALLY DRIER-THAN-NORMAL WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. DESPITE A WET SIGNAL IN LA NIñA COMPOSITES FOR WESTERN PARTS
OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST BASED ON THE NMME AND CONSOLIDATION TOOL. COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH'S RELEASE, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE
DECREASED TO BELOW 40 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
SST-CONSTRUCTED ANALOG HAS A WETTER SIGNAL FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO, THE UNUSUALLY
WET OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER DECREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WILL VERIFY DURING DJF. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL WINTERS ARE VERY RELIABLE DURING LA NIñA.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE IN PART TO THE DRIER WINTER CLIMATOLOGY. ELEVATED
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES EXTEND NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AS THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FAVORED WINTER STORM TRACK RESULTS IN ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. IT IS TYPICAL TO HAVE A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST DURING LA NIñA WINTERS. BASED ON LA NIñA COMPOSITES AND
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
(MORE THAN 50 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. OVERALL THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS HAVE TRENDED WETTER FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE NOW THE
DJF OUTLOOK ONLY SLIGHTLY LEANS TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE.
ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING
JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH 2026, A LA NIñA INFLUENCE ON THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND ANOMALOUS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE LATE WINTER OR EVEN EARLY SPRING. THEREFORE, THE JFM AND
FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE SIMILAR TO LA NIñA COMPOSITES
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE NMME, C3S, AND CONSOLIDATION. LATER IN THE
SPRING AND INTO THE SUMMER 2026, THE COVERAGE OF EC INCREASES DUE TO WEAK
AND/OR CONFLICTING SIGNALS AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES,
LONG-TERM TRENDS WERE USED TO IDENTIFY ANY AREAS WITH EITHER FAVORED BELOW OR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON DEC 18 2025
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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