037
FOUS30 KWBC 231559
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
DAY 1
VALID 16Z SUN NOV 23 2025 - 12Z MON NOV 24 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
..16Z UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE, MAINTAINING AN INHERITED SLGT RISK
AND ADJUSTING THE CONTOURS A BIT (MAINLY SHRINKING THE NORTHERN
EXTENT) BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z CAMS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SLGT
IMPACTS EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO THE THE BIG
COUNTRY, WHERE FFGS (1-3 HR) ARE AS LOW AS 1.5-2.0". CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PROLIFERATE RATHER LATE IN THE PERIOD, AROUND AND AFTER
06Z FOR THE BULK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
(INCLUDING SAN ANGELO). FARTHER NORTHEAST IN THE SLGT, BOTH RATES
AND RESULTING TOTALS LOOK LOWER WITH LESS CONFIDENCE OVERALL. THAT
SAID, STILL MAINTAINED THE SLGT FOR AREAS WITH FFGS (3-6 HOUR) OF
2.5-3.0" GIVEN MODERATE TO HIGH (40-60%) 40-KM HREF 2" EXCEEDANCE
PROBS AND LOW (UP TO 15%) 3" EXCEEDANCE PROBS. OUTSIDE THE SLGT
RISK, ALSO EXPANDED THE MRGL SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CORPUS CHRISTI, DUE TO BOTH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS MORNING
AND RESULTING TRENDS IN THE HI-RES CAMS SUGGESTING LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR 3-5" EXCEEDANCE (THOUGH FFGS ARE MUCH HIGHER).
CHURCHILL
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FIRING UP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
EAST-WEST STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN
TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PARTS OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METRO COULD REALIZE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES,
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE CONSENSUS KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER QPF
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND FOR LESS POPULATED
LOCATIONS.
WHILE THIS LESS POPULATED REGION OF CENTRAL/ NORTHWEST TEXAS
WITHIN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK HAS
INDICATIONS OF 5"+ POTENTIAL (PER 40-KM HREF 5" EXCEEDANCE PROBS OF
~15%), THIS SIGNAL IS BEING DRIVEN SEEMINGLY ENTIRELY BY ONE
MEMBER (THE FV3, WHICH IS GENERALLY ONE OF THE LESS RELIABLE
MEMBERS) WITH THE BULK OF THE CAM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING 2-4" TOTALS. THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED QPF WILL OCCUR IN
THE LAST 6 HOUR SEGMENT OF THE PERIOD, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT PLAY A
LIMITING FACTOR IN THE NEED OF A LOCAL MODERATE RISK.
CAMPBELL
DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON NOV 24 2025 - 12Z TUE NOV 25 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION, MOVING EAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CENTER AROUND NORTH TEXAS
INITIALLY BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SPLIT IN
LOCATION OF THE 3+ INCH EXCEEDANCE FROM A RELATIVELY
HYDROLOGICALLY SENSITIVE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS (MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE GFS/GEFS)
AND THE OTHER CAMP INDICATING HIGHER ODDS FOR 3" EXCEEDANCE FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERATIONS FOR A FUTURE TARGETED MODERATE RISK UPGRADE,
THOUGH FOR THIS TO OCCUR MORE GUIDANCE WOULD MOST LIKELY NEED TO
SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SOLUTION (OR CONSOLIDATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION WHILE ALSO GETTING WETTER, AS FFGS INDICATE MUCH
LESS SENSITIVE SOILS THAT WOULD REQUIRE A BROADER AREA OF 3"+
BEFORE MEETING MODERATE COVERAGE CRITERIA).
CAMPBELL/CHURCHILL
DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 25 2025 - 12Z WED NOV 26 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD
THEN WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST DURING
THIS PERIOD. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 4 OUTLOOK. AREAL AVERAGES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON.
CAMPBELL
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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