872
FOUS30 KWBC 232000
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
DAY 1
VALID 16Z SUN NOV 23 2025 - 12Z MON NOV 24 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
..16Z UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE, MAINTAINING AN INHERITED SLGT RISK
AND ADJUSTING THE CONTOURS A BIT (MAINLY SHRINKING THE NORTHERN
EXTENT) BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z CAMS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SLGT
IMPACTS EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO THE THE BIG
COUNTRY, WHERE FFGS (1-3 HR) ARE AS LOW AS 1.5-2.0". CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PROLIFERATE RATHER LATE IN THE PERIOD, AROUND AND AFTER
06Z FOR THE BULK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
(INCLUDING SAN ANGELO). FARTHER NORTHEAST IN THE SLGT, BOTH RATES
AND RESULTING TOTALS LOOK LOWER WITH LESS CONFIDENCE OVERALL. THAT
SAID, STILL MAINTAINED THE SLGT FOR AREAS WITH FFGS (3-6 HOUR) OF
2.5-3.0" GIVEN MODERATE TO HIGH (40-60%) 40-KM HREF 2" EXCEEDANCE
PROBS AND LOW (UP TO 15%) 3" EXCEEDANCE PROBS. OUTSIDE THE SLGT
RISK, ALSO EXPANDED THE MRGL SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST IN THE VICINITY
OF CORPUS CHRISTI, DUE TO BOTH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS MORNING
AND RESULTING TRENDS IN THE HI-RES CAMS SUGGESTING LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR 3-5" EXCEEDANCE (THOUGH FFGS ARE MUCH HIGHER).
CHURCHILL
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FIRING UP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
EAST-WEST STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN
TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PARTS OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METRO COULD REALIZE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES,
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE CONSENSUS KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER QPF
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND FOR LESS POPULATED
LOCATIONS.
WHILE THIS LESS POPULATED REGION OF CENTRAL/ NORTHWEST TEXAS
WITHIN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK HAS
INDICATIONS OF 5"+ POTENTIAL (PER 40-KM HREF 5" EXCEEDANCE PROBS OF
~15%), THIS SIGNAL IS BEING DRIVEN SEEMINGLY ENTIRELY BY ONE
MEMBER (THE FV3, WHICH IS GENERALLY ONE OF THE LESS RELIABLE
MEMBERS) WITH THE BULK OF THE CAM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING 2-4" TOTALS. THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED QPF WILL OCCUR IN
THE LAST 6 HOUR SEGMENT OF THE PERIOD, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT PLAY A
LIMITING FACTOR IN THE NEED OF A LOCAL MODERATE RISK.
CAMPBELL
DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON NOV 24 2025 - 12Z TUE NOV 25 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
..20Z UPDATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION MON AM, MOVING
EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CENTER AROUND NORTH TEXAS
INITIALLY BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD. GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON A
MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS, AND THIS INCLUDES
THE LATEST 12Z HI-RES MODEL SUITE (WHICH NOW EXTENDS THROUGH THE
FULL PERIOD). THE RATHER BROAD SLIGHT RISK IS NOW RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE, GIVEN EXPECTED LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AROUND 3-4" BEING
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FFGS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SLGT AND AT
OR BELOW FFGS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SLGT (THOUGH STILL
MAINTAINED AT SLGT HERE GIVEN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
5" EXIST TO THE SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...DESPITE THESE
PROBABILITIES BEING LESS THAN 20% PER 12Z HREF EXCEEDANCE PROBS).
CHURCHILL/CAMPBELL
DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 25 2025 - 12Z WED NOV 26 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
..20Z UPDATE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED OUTLOOK, AS GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING LOCALIZED TOTALS AS HIGH AS
2-3". SHOULD THESE OCCUR OVER A SHORT ENOUGH PERIOD (OR EXCEED 3"+
IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH) THAN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE.
CHURCHILL
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD
THEN WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST DURING
THIS PERIOD. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 4 OUTLOOK. AREAL AVERAGES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON.
CAMPBELL
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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