098
FXUS02 KWBC 252004
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 28 2025 - 12Z TUE DEC 02 2025
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO MIDWEST FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
..OVERVIEW
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD
TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW, GUSTY WINDS, AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD HIGH WILL CONTRAST WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT,
LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, MOISTURE STREAMING IN
WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY
FOCUSING CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TROUGHING SHOULD BRING CONTINUED COLDER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, ENHANCING QPF (IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN TIER). THE MAIN OUTLIER WITH THAT WAS THE FASTER 00Z GFS,
BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z RUN WERE MORE AGREEABLE WITH THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEN, MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PATTERN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAS
SET TO DIVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND.
SOME GUIDANCE, SUCH AS SEVERAL GFS RUNS INCLUDING THE 00Z, HAD BEEN
PULLING THIS ENERGY WELL SOUTHWEST TO FORM A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
OF VARYING DEPTHS AND POSITIONS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
STEADY THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH A MORE PHASED TROUGH WITH SOMETIMES
SOME MINIMAL SEPARATION. THE GFS, STARTING WITH THE 06Z RUN,
STARTED TO BECOME MORE PHASED LIKE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE 06Z GFS
WAS NOT FAVORED THOUGH WITH HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHED THE TROUGHING
EASTWARD COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE THOUGH. CMC RUNS HAVE BEEN A
NICE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION, SHOWING SOME LIMITED ENERGY SEPARATING
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM, BUT STILL PHASED ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TO GUIDE IT EASTWARD. 00Z CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWED AMPLE SPREAD. BUT THE 12Z MODELS ARE
MAINTAINING THIS PATTERN OF SHOWING ONLY A SMALL SEPARATION OF
STREAMS BY MONDAY, SO HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED ON THIS FOR
FUTURE RUNS.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL DETERMINISTIC BLEND
FAVORING THE ECMWF AND CMC EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING
PROPORTIONS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSED,
REACHING HALF THE BLEND DAY 6 AND MORE DAY 7 GIVEN THE INCREASING
SPREAD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AND MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS FRIDAY AND
SPREADING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE POSSIBILITY FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW
HAS RISEN OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO AS MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. TRAVEL MAY
BE IMPACTED; SEE WPC'S SOON TO BE ISSUED KEY MESSAGES FOR MORE
INFORMATION. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH, GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK. RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN INTENSITY FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND INSTABILITY. THE DAY 5/SATURDAY MARGINAL RISK IN THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK STILL LOOKS GOOD. BY SUNDAY-MONDAY THERE IS MORE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERALLY
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND ENHANCE RAIN TOTALS THERE SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TREND FROM DAY TO DAY. SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS LIKE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES COULD RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW.
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 10-20 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48
LATE WEEK AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY RAISE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT MEANWHILE AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPILL INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MULTIPLE DAYS
OF BELOW 0F LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY IN THE DAKOTAS
TO MINNESOTA.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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