039
FXUS02 KWBC 260742
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 29 2025 - 12Z WED DEC 3 2025
***IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL LIKELY***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN INCREASINGLY COLDER WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE
BASE OF THAT TROUGH WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
BECOMES AN ORGANIZED SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FROM TEXAS TO THE EAST
COAST THAT WILL LIKELY DELIVER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST U.S.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND
RECOMMENDED AS A STARTING POINT. THE PREVIOUS 18Z RUN OF THE GFS
WAS NOTABLY FASTER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS
WHILE STILL A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE. AT THE TIME OF FRONTS/PRESSURES
PREPARATION, THE 18Z GFS WAS REDUCED BY MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN
THAT FASTER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PHASING TAKES PLACE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS, A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW
COULD DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF THE PERIOD BASED
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE, AND THAT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN
THE EXTENT OF POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE INCREASED TO
ABOUT HALF BY WEDNESDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MAIN THING THAT WILL MAKE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WINTER STORM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
REGION WITH THE GREATEST EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT IS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, NORTHERN IOWA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, WHERE THE PROSPECTS OF GETTING AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW
IS GREATEST. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS KEY MESSAGES REGARDING THIS EVENT GIVEN
THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THANKSGIVING WEEKEND TRAVEL.
FARTHER SOUTH, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FUEL
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY, WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL,
HEAVIEST NEAR THE GULF COAST. THERE HAS BEEN A MORE SUPPRESSED
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AS IT RELATES TO QPF BY KEEPING THE MAXIMA
CLOSER TO THE COAST, AND A MARGINAL RISK IS VALID FOR THIS REGION
FOR THE DAY 4/SATURDAY ERO. LOOKING AHEAD TO DAY 5/SUNDAY, THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THE ACTION WITH LIGHTER RAINS NEAR THE
GULF COAST, BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, NO RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR
SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A WIDE EXPANSE OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH SOME NEAR AVERAGE CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND WARMER OVER FLORIDA. THE COLDEST ANOMALIES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 10S TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS, AND LOWS IN
THE 0S GETTING DOWN TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS BY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
SOME SUBZERO OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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