018
FXUS01 KWBC 270637
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
VALID 12Z THU NOV 27 2025 - 12Z SAT NOV 29 2025
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FROM MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
..TURNING MUCH COLDER FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
...NEXT MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO REALITY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXITING THE EAST COAST.
THE PLEASANTLY MILD WEATHER THAT WAS EXPERIENCED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS FROM CANADA IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND GOING
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN FACT, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
FOR MANY OF THESE SAME AREAS WITH HIGHS RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW LATE NOVEMBER AVERAGES, AND EVEN MORE IN SOME CASES. THIS
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW DOWNWIND OF
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING
OVER A FOOT OF ACCUMULATION IN THE MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
BANDS. THIS WILL SEVERELY AFFECT TRAVEL FROM NOW INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, AND SOME ROADS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TO THE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO, AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN, WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES.
OUT WEST, A COMPACT AND WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS ON THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF THANKSGIVING DAY, AND THEN MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL COVERAGE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE WINDWARD TERRAIN OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, AND 1-2 FEET OF
SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER TOTALS FOR THE IDAHO AND MONTANA MOUNTAINS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THIS REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT MAJOR WINTER STORM STARTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA MEETS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
INCREASE THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE
MIDWEST STATES, OVER-RUNNING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FROM MONTANA TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL
AXIS FROM MISSOURI TO INDIANA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS, AND THE
WEATHER PREDICTION HAS ISSUED KEY MESSAGES REGARDING THIS NEXT
EVENT. SEVERE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE BECOMING LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HAMRICK
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