162
FXUS06 KWBC 282042
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 28 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 08 2025
TODAY'S MID-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS LARGE ANOMALOUS RIDGES AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SIBERIA/BERING SEA REGION AND
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH +180 METER DEPARTURES CENTERED OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA NEAR 70N/170E (JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE) AND OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 40-45N/140W. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER FAR WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA, AND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THE 06Z GEFS FORECASTS A
CHANNEL OF MINIMAL POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE BERING SEA THAT
CONNECTS THE TWO LARGE ANOMALOUS RIDGES JUST NOTED. FARTHER EAST, A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA,
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND OF
ALASKA. THIS BROAD 500-HPA TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST, THOUGH PREDICTED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
MINIMAL. THE SOUTHEAST CONUS REPRESENTS AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE 00Z ECENS PREDICTING THE COLDEST SOLUTION
(DEEPEST ANOMALOUS TROUGH), WHILE THE 00Z/06Z GEFS AND 00Z CMCE SOLUTIONS FAVOR
RESIDUAL WEAK ANOMALOUS RIDGING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED TO THE WEST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES, WITH MAXIMUM ODDS OF 70-80% FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED BY THE MODELS, WITH
THE ECENS FORECASTING THE DEEPEST TROUGH. IN CONTRAST, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF COAST INCLUDING FLORIDA. IN THE
WEST, THIS IS BASED ON AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. THE RELATIVE WARMTH FAVORED NEAR THE GULF COAST IS AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COLD TROUGH EXPECTED IN THE EAST, AND ALSO SOUTH OF A MEAN
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN SIBERIA, AND
CONTINENTAL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE AND CONSISTENT WITH
RELATIVELY MILD AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WELL TO THE
SOUTH, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATED AND AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS, ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS, AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED TO THE WEST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF OREGON, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THIS AREA LIES IN THE RELATIVELY DRY WAKE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS FAVORED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, ALIGNING WITH
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE BASE OF THE DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM WASHINGTON STATE EASTWARD TO THE DAKOTAS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS FAVORED TO HAVE
EITHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, OR NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MEANING THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE FAVORED AREAS OF ANOMALOUS WETNESS OR DRYNESS MAY BE
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTH OR SOUTH OF ITS DEPICTED LOCATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE ECENS PRECIPITATION FORECAST, WITH THE GEFS/CMCE
PREDICTING THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO BE DISPLACED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST. IN ALASKA, THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREDICTED REGIONAL 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN AND THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THEREFORE, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ELEVATED OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR HAWAII, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECASTS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2025
TODAY'S MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE FORECAST
DOMAIN DURING THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE LARGE UPSTREAM ANOMALOUS RIDGES
PREDICTED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE EARLIER 6-10
DAY PERIOD ARE REDUCED IN MAGNITUDE ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND TO +120 METERS
AND +90 METERS, RESPECTIVELY. THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THESE TWO KEY CIRCULATION
FEATURES IS SEVERED BY THE 06Z GEFS OVER THE BERING SEA, BUT REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT BY THE 00Z ECENS AND 00Z CMCE RUNS. NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERNS ARE EVIDENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. FIRST, STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING IS DEPICTED BY THE 06Z GEFS OVER MOST OF ALASKA (IN LARGE PART DUE TO
ITS PREDICTED SPLIT IN THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA) AND OVER EASTERN ALASKA
BY THE CMCE. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR SOME RETRACTION OF THE FAVORED
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WHEREAS THE ECENS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH, FAVORING THE -30M HEIGHT ANOMALY CONTOUR AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED
ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS A VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO
THAT PREDICTED FOR THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND FOR THE SAME REASONS NOTED
EARLIER. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
DECREASED FROM 70-80% (6-10 DAY PERIOD) TO 50-60% (8-14 DAY PERIOD), THOUGH
COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, THERE IS MORE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF 50-60% FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD COMPARED TO THE EARLIER
6-10 DAY PERIOD, BASED LARGELY ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND EXPANSION OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST
OF THE MAINLAND IN THE 6-10 DAY TIME FRAME ARE FAVORED TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING WEEK-2 AS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER
HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALSO FAVORS A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT
PREDICTED FOR THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS IN WEEK-2, DUE TO THE SAME REASONING AS NOTED
EARLIER IN THE 6-10 DAY SECTION. A BROADER AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
DEPICTED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS, WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL-SCALE
AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF MISSOURI.
THIS SMALL AREA OF FAVORED RELATIVE DRYNESS HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE RAW
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF THE GEFS, ECENS, CMCE, AND NAEFS, THOUGH ESPECIALLY
THE CMCE. IN ALASKA, THE INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING WEEK-2, WITH A CORRESPONDING RETRACTION OF
FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN HAWAII, THE ERF-CON AND
AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE HEIGHT FORECASTS AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, THOUGH
TEMPERATURE TOOLS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19581212 - 20021123 - 20021202 - 19561124 - 19551127
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20021123 - 19581211 - 20081130 - 19561124 - 20021128
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 08 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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