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FXUS06 KWBC 302002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN NOVEMBER 30 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 10 2025
MODEL ENSEMBLES FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH AMERICA AS DEPICTED IN 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER THE GEFS BEGINS
TO DIVERGE FROM THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TODAY'S 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND A BROAD AND
AMPLIFIED TROUGH COVERING MOST OF NORTH AMERICA EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS UPSTREAM IN THE
HIGH LATITUDES TO COVER MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THAT
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THE ECENS AND CMCE PREFER A PERSISTENCE OF THESE FEATURES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THE GEFS DIVERGES QUITE A BIT BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DEPICTS A RATHER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PICTURE DURING THE
WEEK-2 TIME PERIOD.
WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND A BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM,
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS FAVORED FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED
60%. THESE CHANCES DECLINE QUICKLY GOING SOUTH, WITH NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GULF COAST. THE
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ALSO FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(>60%) OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. A SIMILAR DYNAMIC, WITH
TROUGHING OVER ALASKA AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER EASTERN SIBERIA, FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
EXTENSIVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA SETS UP TWO SOURCES OF MOISTURE
TO DRIVE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION, ONE FOCUSED ON THE CANADIAN WEST COAST FED BY
THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND THE SECOND FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS GULF
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRIVEN BY THE DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER (>60% CHANCES) AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 50%. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
DIVERTS THESE MOISTURE STREAMS AWAY FROM MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, TILTING THE
ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. LIKE THE
TEMPERATURES, A SIMILAR DYNAMIC PLAYS OUT IN ALASKA, WITH BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINLAND, AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PREFERRED OVER THE PANHANDLE. HAWAII TILTS TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 08 - 14 2025
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY INDICATE A PERSISTENCE
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN, SO MUCH SO THAT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS WEAKER
ANOMALIES, WHICH COULD JUST AS LIKELY BE DUE TO TO ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD AS TO
AN ACTUAL EASING OF THE DEPICTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE GEFS
DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE ECENS AND CMCE DURING WEEK-2, DECREASING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. TODA''S WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DE-EMPHASIZES THE GEFS
SOLUTION AND THEREFORE MAINTAINS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE DEPICTED IN THE
EARLIER PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS,
WITH ODDS TOPPING 50% FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS FAVORED TO PUSH COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTH,
FAVORING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUE TO
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASING FROM
EAST TO WEST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE STATE OF
ALASKA, WHILE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS CONTINUING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS LIKELY TO KEEP MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE ITS
UPSTREAM INFLUENCE IS FAVORED TO SPREAD BEYOND THE CENTRAL PLAINS, TILTING
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND MID-ATLANTIC TOWARDS NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHER CHANCES (>50%) ALONG THE WESTERN U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER. SOUTHEAST ALASKA REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MAIN PACIFIC STORM TRACK
TO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA REMAIN UNDER BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ALL OF HAWAII
TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20021203 - 20081203 - 20071128 - 19881208 - 19761126
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19781124 - 20021202 - 20071126 - 20001206 - 20081203
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 08 - 14 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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