749
FXUS02 KWBC 302015
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
VALID 12Z WED DEC 03 2025 - 12Z SUN DEC 07 2025
...HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST...
..OVERVIEW
SPRAWLING DEEP AND COLD LOW PERSISTS OVER HUDSON BAY WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK
AND WILL EXPAND AT TIMES OVER THE WEST ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THERE. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINTRY WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH A POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER FOR THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE POSITIVELY-TILTED SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL SLOW AS IT PIVOTS EAST
WEDNESDAY, LIKELY NOT CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT PER THE 12Z GLOBAL CONSENSUS. THIS WILL LEAVE AMPLE TIME FOR
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MERGE IN AND ALLOW SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS MOST BULLISH ON A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND WITH MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS IN THE ECAIFS AND OTHER
WITH A MORE ZONAL SOLUTION A THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING STRAIGHT
OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM POTENTIAL.
THE MORNING WPC FORECAST RELIED ON DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT MOST
CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE 06Z ECAIFS WHICH WAS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH DAY 5, THEN MORE HEAVILY ON THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE
00Z ECENS/CMCE FOR DAYS 6/7.
THE STRONG DETERMINISTIC AGREEMENT ALLOWS FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST THURSDAY, SPREADING EAST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST/GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND. WPC QPF INVOLVEMENT OF THE 00Z
ECMWF TO AMEND THE 13Z NBM ALONG WITH TARGETED INCLUSION OF THE 00Z
CMC/UKMET AND THE 06Z ECAIFS/GFS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THURSDAY
AS MOUNTAIN SNOWS OCCUR OVER THE ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN BEGINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST, SPREADING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THURSDAY, SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DAY 5
MARGINAL RISK WAS EXPANDED A BIT TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE HOUSTON AND
NEW ORLEANS METROS PER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS NEAR THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE TRACK (WHETHER STRAIGHT OUT TO SEA OR
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST) REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO STAY TUNED FOR
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
SURGES OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE SPRAWLING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
PERSISTS. A SURGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
OCCURS WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30F ARE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT COLD SURGE MAY BE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE AND SHOULD
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE RELIEF COMES TO
THE WEST WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
JACKSON
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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