952
FXCA20 KWBC 081724
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1224 PM EST MON DEC 08 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 DECEMBER 2025 AT 1730 UTC:
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ AND TABASCO ON MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WILL START
LOSING ITS STRUCTURE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO THE REGION THAT WILL MOTIVATE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE POOLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TEHUANTEPECER LOW LEVEL JET ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER SPEED
DIVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT TO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 TO 45 MM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERACRUZ.
ANOTHER MAXIMA OF 40 - 80MM IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS TABASCO AND
NORTHWEST GUATEMALA WHERE THERE WILL BE MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DURING THE EVENING. THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HENCE, STILL
EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY, WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 60MM. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT IN THIS REGION ON TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY. ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE, AFFILIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WILL BE ONGOING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAILY ACCUMULATIONS IN
THIS REGION WILL REACH 25MM. BY WEDNESDAY, A BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE GULF AND WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN. IF ANY
PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE PRESENCE
OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS.
ANOTHER REGION THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CUBA
AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ON MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO MEXICO WILL ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS REGION WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAMS, WHERE A POTENT JET STREAK MAX WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
THEREAFTER, THE JET STREAK MAX WILL BEGIN TO DECAY AND ANOTHER
POLAR UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THESE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE
PRESENCE OF SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BAHAMAS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL DEVELOP UNDER THIS UPPER
LEVEL REGIME THAT WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
EXPECT DAILY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO REACH 20MM WHERE
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ACROSS CUBA WILL BE
SIMILAR, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE FOR
THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW
LEVEL PROCESSES WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE.
ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO, A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGIONS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON MONDAY, LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FAIR BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE EXCEEDING 38MM. LOCAL EFFECTS
AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL DRIVE PRECIPITATION INITIATION
PROCESSES AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE ADDITIONAL VERTICAL ASCENT AND INSTABILITY
BEING PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BY TUESDAY, LOW
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL GAIN STRENGTH, RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACROSS THE NORTH
FACING MOUNTAINS OF JALISCO. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO START TO DECREASE ON THIS DAY. THUS, ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DAY PRIOR. BY WEDNESDAY, FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THIS REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA, EL
SALVADOR, AND GUATEMALA ON MONDAY AND WILL BE PROJECTED INTO THE
LOWER LEVELS. THOUGH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE
COAST, LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA, THE
PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. NOTE THAT
THERE ARE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS THAT ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER
ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA THAT WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. EXPECT SEASONAL
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS BECOMING
A DAILY OCCURRENCE AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DRYING TREND ACROSS
THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN. HOWEVER, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN. DAILY PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30MM FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE.
IN THE GUIANAS, A LONG FETCH MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE CONVERGING
INTO THE REGION. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PLUME IS A LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WITH MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURES THAT WILL BE
PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00
-- -- -- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
FOR THE LATEST AVAILABLE CHARTS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page