510
FXCA20 KWBC 101850
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 DECEMBER 2025 AT 1850 UTC:
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS,
WEST CUBA, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND CUBA WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING INTO
QUINTANA ROO. BY THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPING ACROSS NORTHWEST CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA. THUS, EXPECT A STATIONARY FRONT TO STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN CUBA FOR FRIDAY.
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT DAILY WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 44MM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AFTER THURSDAY EVENING WHEN
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS ANTICIPATED TO GAIN
DEFINITION. THIS WILL ENABLE THE DEVELOPMENT FOR COASTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. BY FRIDAY, A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL FAVOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 -
25M ACROSS QUINTANA ROO AND BELIZE. ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO, HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLIMA, MICHOACAN, AND GUERRERO THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE VERY WEAK. THUS IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS, IT WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE
AND LOCAL EFFECTS. EXPECT DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 10MM
ACROSS THIS REGION.
IN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, THE AXIS OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SUSTENANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT BUT BECAUSE OF THE MODERATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, DAILY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT EXCEED 15MM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA, THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET
IS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE
PROPAGATION SPEED OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A PERIOD OF INTEREST IS ON
FRIDAY, WHEN A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE REGION.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP IN INTENSIFYING THE PANAMANIAN LOW AND
THUS, THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
INTO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA ON LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER PEAK SOLAR HEATING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ACROSS THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE SAME TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN WHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AMAZON BASIN, ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ALSO MODERATE IN THE
REGION AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ARE PRESENT OR WHERE THERE IS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR
PRESENT WITHIN THE VERTICAL COLUMN, WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AMAZON FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS THE GUIANAS. A LONG
FETCH MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO CONVERGE INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO MOVE INLAND AS WELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE ONGOING INITIATION OF CONVECTION FOR
THE FORECAST CYCLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THIS MAY ENHANCE
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ITS EXIT REGION, WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE GUIANAS. OVERALL, ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED 30MM IN THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION, SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WITH THE EASTERLY
TRADES. THESE TROUGHS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES. DAILY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS OF 10MM WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THESE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00
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