605
FXUS01 KWBC 110800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
VALID 12Z THU DEC 11 2025 - 12Z SAT DEC 13 2025
...ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
DIMINISH TODAY...
...ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TODAY AND
FRIDAY; UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...
..ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
...FAST MOVING LOW TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; MID-ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST COAST,
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY..
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT HAS PRODUCED 5 TO 10+ INCHES OF RAIN
ATOP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY
COME TO AN END TODAY AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS SUBSIDING, LINGERING RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING MAJOR RIVER FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
STATE AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
IN ADDITION TO BRINGING AN END TO THE WET PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PATTERN, THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ARCTIC
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
PLUMMET 30 TO 40 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD, TRANSLATING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA BY
TOMORROW. AS THE FRIGID AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER REACHES OF THE OHIO VALLEY, DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE TEENS BY SATURDAY. COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO SUPPORT ACTIVE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE
SNOW TOTALS OF 6-10" AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A NARROW AXIS OF 2-4" OF SNOWFALL ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO
VALLEY, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WEST OF THE SNOWFALL AXIS,
UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. AS A WHOLE, A
LOOK AT THE WATCH-WARNING MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS A SWATH OF WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY. BEYOND FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PHILADELPHIA AND
WASHINGTON D.C.
WHILE LARGE SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL
HAVE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE
OPPOSITE WILL BE TRUE ACROSS THE WEST FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND FRIDAY
ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA WHERE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN SURROUNDING
AREAS THAT WILL BE CLOUD FREE. IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
RECORD HIGH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S. MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALSO ON TAP FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AND EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION ON FRIDAY.
ASHERMAN/ORAVEC
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