838
FXCA20 KWBC 111707
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1207 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 11 DECEMBER 2025 AT 1715 UTC:
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY BEFORE LOSING ITS AMPLITUDE
ON THURSDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
POOLING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS QUINTANA ROO, BELIZE, AND GUATEMALA
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY EVENING, EXPECT THE
BROADENING OF A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF, WHICH
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION AND WILL ARRIVE
INTO THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL FAVOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO DECREASE THE
PROPAGATION SPEED OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION INTO QUINTANA
ROO. IT WILL QUICKLY LOSE DEFINITION AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT
WITH THE RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. THUS, EXPECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE A TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA OF 20 - 40MM IS LIKELY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY BUT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST.
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS QUINTANA ROO, BELIZE, AND
GUATEMALA WILL BE ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS, THE DIURNAL CYCLE,
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
ANOTHER REGION THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN THIS REGION FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST CYCLE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL FAVOR INCREASING
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
DECREASE FOR FRIDAY ACROSS BOTH REGIONS. ON SATURDAY, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST CUBA, HELPING DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT FURTHER.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE REGION. THUS, ONLY
A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF UP TO 15MM IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WILL HAVE AN AXIS AT 77W ON THURSDAY
EVENING, WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA AND ARRIVING ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE
PANAMANIAN LOW AND THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GENERAL
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW PATTERN. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, PRECIPITATION IMPACTS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH, WHERE A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. BY
SATURDAY, EXPECT A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 40 - 80MM ACROSS
COSTA RICA. ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
REGION THAT WILL BE SUSTAINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
ANOTHER REGION AFFECTED BY THE PANAMANIAN LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
COLOMBIA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAK, BUT THERE WILL
BE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP,
IT WILL BE ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS, THE DIURNAL CYCLE, AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. ELSEWHERE IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, THE
NOCTURNAL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN. EXPECT A DAILY TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 25MM IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE WESTERN
AMAZON BASIN, ONGOING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ANDES IN NORTHERN PERU. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WHEN THERE WILL BE
THE MOST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 -
45MM IS POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER, EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN
ACCUMULATIONS. ACROSS THE GUIANAS AND AMAZON DELTA, A LONG FETCH
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO CONVERGE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL ALSO SUPPORT UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THUS, EXPECT
DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITAITON MAXIMA TO EXCEED 40MM IN ACROSS THE
AMAZON DELTA AND TO EXCEED 30MM ACROSS THE GUIANAS.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS, EXPECT SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WIND
REGIME AND THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE BASIN. EXPECT A SERIES OF
TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING WITH AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE
DIURNAL CYCLE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00
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