077
FXUS06 KWBC 122011
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI DECEMBER 12 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 18 - 22 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 610
DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND A STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, MODELS
PREDICT A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE
610 DAY PERIOD THAT EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER TIME. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII DURING THE 610 DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UNDER
PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED UNDER BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS) DUE TO A
PERSISTENT RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 90
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE
610 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDER AND AHEAD OF THE POSITIVE
500-HPA ANOMALY CENTER. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH ALL ENSEMBLE MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND CONSISTENT WITH ALL ENSEMBLE MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION
TOOLS DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN A CHANGING PATTERN. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE MODEL
FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR CERTAIN AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 20 - 26 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 814 DAY PERIOD
PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 610 DAY
PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PERSISTS TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED DOWNSTREAM OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
PARTS OF MAINE, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPAND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND AND THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS
HAWAII DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS IN THE 814 DAY PERIOD UNDER STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA MAINLAND IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL TOOLS FOR THE
CONUS PREDICT LIKELY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
IN THE 814 DAY PERIOD UNDER A PERSISTENT RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER
PREDICTED ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE 814 DAY PERIOD. THE
CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH ALL ENSEMBLE MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE NORTHEAST REGIONS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN OREGON, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19951129 - 20131214 - 19951124 - 20101211 - 20211202
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20131214 - 19951130 - 19951125 - 20211202 - 20101211
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 18 - 22 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 20 - 26 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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