750
FOUS11 KWBC 140851
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 14 2025 - 12Z WED DEC 17 2025
..MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DAY 1...
POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AS IT
SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST WITH RAPID
STRENGTHENING TODAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. DECENT FGEN
DRIVEN SNOW BANDING WITH RATES AROUND 1"/HR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THEY BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE SFC
LOW. THESE BANDS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHEAST MASS CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE THEY WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME OCEAN/BAY ENHANCED
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AROUND 0.75" QPF WHICH WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH TOTALS TEMPERED A BIT
FROM STILL WARM WATERS. DAY 1 PWPF FOR >4" AFTER 12Z IS GENERALLY
LIMITED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH PROBABILITIES OF 40-70%.
DAY 1 PWPF FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2" AFTER 12Z ARE GENERALLY 40-70% FROM
RHODE ISLAND ACROSS LONG ISLAND, DOWN THE JERSEY SHORE THROUGH
LOWER DELAWARE WITH 30% PROBS INTO THE NORTHERN NECK OF VA AND THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
UPSLOPE SNOW RATES WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DWINDLE THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH DAY 1 PWPF FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2" AFTER 12Z ARE GENERALLY
30-70% FOR ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL WV ABOVE 2500FT.
..GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1-2...
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE
HURON TODAY WILL ACTIVATE NLY FLOW SNOW BELTS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
U.P. WHERE DAY 1 PWPF FOR >4" ARE 40-70%.
WNWLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL VEER
NNWLY BY THIS EVENING WITH PIVOTING BANDS FROM ERIE AND ONTARIO.
DAY 1 PWPF FOR >4" ARE 30% INLAND FROM ERIE, PA AND 50-80% JUST
NORTH OF SYRACUSE.
LULL IN LES EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE LAKES. BUT A SHORTWAVE CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND CROSSES MONDAY WITH A DECENT, BUT TRANSIENT SWATH
OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES BEFORE PROMPTING
SINGL-BAND LES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DGZ CENTERED ON 850MB. DAY 2 PWPF FOR >2" IS 40-70% FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT
WHILE THERE ARE 30% PROBS FOR >6" SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND 60-80% FOR
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
A RETURN OF RIDGING CUTS OFF THE EASTERN LES EARLY TUESDAY.
..CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
DAYS 2-3...
POTENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO WESTERN
WA/OR WITH SNOW LEVELS SKYROCKETING UP TO 9000FT OVER THE CASCADES.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER WA LATE MONDAY QUICKLY BRINGS SNOW
LEVELS ON THE NORTH CASCADES BACK DOWN TO 5000FT BY THE EVENING,
REACHING 4000FT OVERNIGHT. LOWER PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH DAY 2 PWPF FOR >6" LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
WA CASCADES. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS RISE ONLY A LITTLE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP RATES
INCREASE AS SNOW LEVELS REMAINS AROUND 4500 TO 6000FT ON THE WA/OR
CASCADES. DAY 3 PWPF FOR >8" IS OVER 80% ACROSS THE HIGHER WA
CASCADES. MOISTURE SURGES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
5000 TO 6000FT OVER THE ID/MT RANGES WHERE DAY 3 PWPF FOR >6" ARE
40-80%.
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
JACKSON
..EXTREME COLD KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT AND LINKED BELOW
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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