956
FXUS01 KWBC 162038
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
VALID 00Z WED DEC 17 2025 - 00Z FRI DEC 19 2025
...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING AS MORE ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACT THE AREA THIS
WEEK...
...THE MOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS AND ACCOMPANIED HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS...
...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN,
HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN-WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SYSTEM NUMBER ONE
IS ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IS STARTING TO BRING
RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC ON THURSDAY,
AND ITS ATTENDANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAILY 2-4 INCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR BOTH DAYS. THE
SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH RIVER LEVELS WILL MAKE THE AREA
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING IMPACTS. THEREFORE, WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF WESTERN OREGON AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON FOR THURSDAY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST FOR FRIDAY FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ON THE WINTER SIDE OF THINGS, HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE CASCADES AND OLYMPIC MOUNTAIN RANGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY REACH 1-2 FEET AND WINDS
MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH, PROMPTING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
THESE MOUNTAIN RANGES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL BRING HIGH END
IMPACTS AND LIES IN THE 90TH-99TH PERCENTILE FOR OBSERVED WIND
GUSTS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 60-75 MPH RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OVER 80 MPH, ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO THE PLAINS. POWER OUTAGES AND TREE AND ROOF
DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. ADDITIONALLY, 1-3 FEET OF
SNOW COULD FALL TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM THEN ENTERS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DAKOTAS EARLY THURSDAY WHERE THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
RAISE THE CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY, ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIFT FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA TO BRING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTING SOME STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. LASTLY, A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, MAY BRING
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
WILDER
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