238
FXUS01 KWBC 192105
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
404 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
VALID 00Z SAT DEC 20 2025 - 00Z MON DEC 22 2025
...CALIFORNIA WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK AS ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ENTERS THE
AREA...
...HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC/INTER-MOUNTAIN-WEST ...
...RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHWEST, GRAND
BASIN, AND TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN...
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FALLING OVER
THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTHERN SIERRA OF CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIIFC. RAINFALL SHOULD LESSEN
BY THIS EVENING, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR TOMORROW AS
MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL REMAIN ALONG A DRAPED STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE AREA. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HOWEVER, ANOTHER IMPULSE
OF ENERGY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GUIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD SURPASS 4-6
INCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE, ACCUMULATIONS COULD NEAR A FOOT IN
THE HIGHEST ZONES. WPC HAS STARTED A KEY MESSAGE FOR THIS EVENT
AND IS HIGHLIGHTING THE RISKS OF FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND
BURN SCARS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE HAZARDS
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE ACCUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER NORTH CALIFORNIA
WILL ALSO RAISE CONCERNS FOR WATER RISES IN RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS.
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES, HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LUCKILY, THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO AVOID MAJOR IMPACTS ON HIGH POPULATION CENTERS. FOR
MOUNTAIN RANGES IN IDAHO, MONTANA, AND WYOMING, 1-2 FEET SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER HEAVY SNOW ENTERS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH,
AROUND 5000-7000 FEET, DUE TO THE WARM, PACIFIC FLOW. THIS SNOW
WILL BE GOOD FOR THE WINTER SPORTS ENTHUSIASTS ! THE SIERRA NEVADA
IN CALIFORNIA MAY ALSO ECLIPSE A FOOT OF SNOWFALL AND SEE HIGH
SNOW LOAD BY THE DAY MONDAY, BUT THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER
HIGH AND HOPEFULLY NOT CAUSE TOO MUCH TROUBLE ISSUES FOR THE
PASSES. THE CASCADES AND THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY AS COLDER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND
THUS IMPACT MORE POPULATION CENTERS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE
ACTIVE INTO TOMORROW AS 1-3 FOOT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN MOUNTAIN PASSES.
FOLKS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SAYING "WHAT
CHRISTMAS" AS STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL COMPLETELY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN. MANY CITIES AND TOWNS COULD NEAR OR BREAK
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM LOS
ANGELES TO AUSTIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S TO THE
MIDDLE 60S MOVING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS TO NEBRASKA. IN SUMMARY,
THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MAY
AVERAGE 10-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR EXPECTED AROUND THE
HOLIDAYS. TEMPERATURES ONLY GET HOTTER BY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
EXPANDS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEE COOLER SHOTS OF AIR THOUGH MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PREVAILS IN THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVED
THROUGH THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL USHER IN COLDER
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 50S AND
60S FOR THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE COOLER IN THE
40S AND 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE 30S AND 20S FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THOUGH
THE AREA.
THE LAST MAJOR WEATHER STORYLINE FOR THE NATION WILL BE THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BRING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
SPREAD.
WILDER
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