313
FXUS01 KWBC 211913
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
VALID 00Z MON DEC 22 2025 - 00Z WED DEC 24 2025
...A HIGHLY IMPACTFUL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK
ACROSS CALIFORNIA...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STRETCH ACROSS LARGE
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER 48, WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE WEST AS THE CHRISTMAS WEEK TRAVEL RUSH BEGINS. A PERSISTENT,
STRONGER THAN AVERAGE ONSHORE FLOW OF VERY MOIST PACIFIC AIR WILL
BRING ROUNDS OF RAIN INTO THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG COASTAL REGIONS FROM SAN FRANCISCO, NORTHWARD.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP IMPACTING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FALLING AS RAIN. WHILE
SOIL MOISTURE IS STARTING OUT RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS ALL OF
CALIFORNIA, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASES CHANCES OF FLOODING, ALONG WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR LANDSLIDES, ROCK FALLS AND MUDSLIDES AS THE RAINFALL
TOTALS ADD UP. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT WILL BEGIN TO ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE NORTH-EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME,
ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, ALONG WITH CONTINUED FLOODING, LANDSLIDE, ROCK FALL
AND MUDSLIDE THREATS. THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
LETTING UP, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. BY THE TIME THE
HOLIDAY WEEK ENDS, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
10 TO 20 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.
A RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER 48 THIS WEEK. A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN TO UPSTATE NEW YORK, WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK
WILL ALSO SUPPORT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP ARCTIC AIR OUT OF
THE LOWER 48, WITH IT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS CANADA
AND ALASKA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN, CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS THESE REGIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
CHRISTMAS, LIMITING ANY CHANCES OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS, DEFINED BY 1
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND, TO AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, NORTHERN TO WESTERN NY STATE, THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
ORAVEC
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