191
FXUS02 KWBC 241944
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
VALID 12Z SAT DEC 27 2025 - 12Z WED DEC 31 2025
..OVERVIEW
LEADING AND INITIALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND, AS SPLIT UPPER TROUGHING
SHIFTS INLAND OVER THE WEST TO BRING AN END TO A VERY WET PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL
U.S., EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STARK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLDER NORTHERN TIER
WILL HAVE SEVERAL PLOWABLE SNOW CHANCES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH ADVENT OF NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGHING AND WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEMS. EXPECT ENHANCED LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS SUNDAY/MONDAY IN STRONG COLD FLOW IN THE WAKE OF MAIN
LOW PASSAGE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
IS USED FOR DAYS 3 AND 4. ON DAY 4 THOUGH, THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF
VARIANCE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 06Z
GFS, 00Z UKMET AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE USED IN THE DAY 5 BLEND
FOLLOWED BY THE GFS/ECMWF SUITES AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THE
DAYS 6 AND 7 BLENDS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LEADING SHALLOW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM REFLECTION AND POSSIBLE FLOW
AMPLIFICATION WITH THE DIGGING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING
INTO THE LOWER 48 WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED SNOW/ICE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM FROM THE CENTRAL
TO EAST-CENTRAL U.S. MID-LOWER LATITUDES INTO SATURDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS 25-30+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MAY SET DAYTIME AND WARM MORNING
LOW RECORDS. THE AIRMASS MOVES EAST WITH TIME AND MODERATES. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE IN STARK CONTRAST WITH SUBSEQUENT COLDER FLOW
SET TO DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENED
LOW PASSAGE AND LEADING/WRAPPING ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. OUT
WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND,
WITH ANOTHER WARMUP POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING.
LATER UPSTREAM, THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SIGNAL FAVORING RE-EMERGING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST
WITH RENEWED/WINDY ONSHORE FLOW, AS WELL AS POTENTIAL RENEWED
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOCAL IN ABOUT A WEEK LENDING INTO THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S WEEK 2 FORECAST TO RING IN 2026.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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