026
FXUS06 KWBC 242001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED DECEMBER 24 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 30, 2025 - JAN 03, 2026
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A TELECONNECTION UPON ITS LARGE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER NEAR ICELAND SUPPORTS AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST WHICH IS PREDICTED WELL BY THE PREFERRED ECENS AND CMCE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THIS AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS). COMPARED TO JUST A FEW DAYS AGO, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH
COLDER FOR THE EAST DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. A BROAD 500-HPA RIDGE WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALOUS SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHERE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE THE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
A TRANSIENT 500-HPA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WELCOMED PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVOR A RETURN OF A
WET PATTERN TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW
YEAR. DUE IN PART TO A LOWER CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS LARGE
ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES (60-70 PERCENT) OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THESE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREVALENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ELEVATE THE CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS UPSTREAM
NEAR THE WEST COAST, THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY BY DAY
10, JANUARY 3.
THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA INTO THE NEW YEAR AND PROMOTE ADDITIONAL ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT ALASKA. CONSISTENT
WITH THIS ANOMALOUS COLD, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW ELEVATE THE CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII. ALTHOUGH A KONA LOW MAY FORM AND AFFECT
HAWAII IN EARLY JANUARY 2026, THE ECENS HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BEYOND DAY 10, JANUARY 3.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
OFFSET BY POOR MODEL CONTINUITY DATING BACK TO LAST WEEK AND UNCERTAINTY WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 01 - 07 2026
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PAIR OF
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGES, CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALEUTIAN RIDGE, A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP EITHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OR WESTERN CONUS. THE GEFS
FAVORS KEEPING THE 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK-2, WHILE THE ECENS AND CMCE HAVE AN INLAND PLACEMENT OF THE AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO KEEP 500-HPA HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR MODEL TREND TOWARDS
ANOMALOUS COLD FOR THIS REGION TO START THE NEW YEAR. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST DUE TO PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE
ECENS HAS DAILY ANOMALIES OF -15 DEGREES F ON JANUARY 1 AND 2. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST IS PREDICTED TO HAVE
COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN WEEK-2 BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OCCURS. ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A
LACK OF SNOW COVER IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PREDICTED DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR THE
HIGH PLAINS WERE FACTORS IN THESE LARGER PROBABILITIES.
EARLY IN WEEK-2, A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE ANOMALOUS WET PATTERN, AN AMPLIFYING 500-HPA TROUGH
INCREASES THE CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE RETURN OF A WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THESE AREAS IN EARLY JANUARY, THE CHANCES OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE 500-HPA
TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE ON WHERE EXACTLY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SETS UP LATER IN WEEK-2. ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING
500-HPA TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST, NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS
AND ECENS ALONG WITH THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND, THE
OUTLOOK LEANS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.
DUE TO THE FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING STRAIT,
COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED THROUGHOUT ALASKA. THE ECENS AND GEFS INDICATE THAT THE ANOMALOUS
COLD PERSISTS STATEWIDE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. LATER IN WEEK-2, MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A KONA LOW AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR KAUAI. THE FAVORED WETNESS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING
LA NINA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980102 - 20220103 - 19921227 - 20211223 - 20211213
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980102 - 20220105 - 20121203 - 19951203 - 20081228
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 30, 2025 - JAN 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 01 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page