492
FXUS02 KWBC 250733
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 28 2025 - 12Z THU JAN 01 2026
..OVERVIEW
LEADING AND INITIALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND, AS SPLIT UPPER TROUGHING
SHIFTS INLAND OVER THE WEST TO BRING AN END TO A VERY WET PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING CALIFORNIA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES INTO THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A STARK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE
IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PLOWABLE SNOW FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REGIONS. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN LOW PASSAGE BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS
UTILIZED FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. THE WPC BLEND WAS COMPRISED OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC
INITIALLY AND THEN INCLUDED THE EC/CMC/GFS ENSEMBLES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LEADING SHALLOW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM REFLECTION AND POSSIBLE FLOW
AMPLIFICATION WITH THE DIGGING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING
INTO THE LOWER 48 WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED SNOW/ICE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM FROM THE CENTRAL
TO EAST-CENTRAL U.S. MID-LOWER LATITUDES INTO SATURDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS 25-30+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MAY SET DAYTIME AND WARM MORNING
LOW RECORDS. THE AIRMASS MOVES EAST WITH TIME AND MODERATES. A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES. IN CONTRAST,
TEMPERATURES OUT WEST WILL MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGING.
THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WITH RENEWED/WINDY ONSHORE FLOW, AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL RENEWED PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOCAL IN
ABOUT A WEEK LENDING INTO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S WEEK 2
FORECAST TO RING IN 2026.
CAMPBELL/KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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