493
FXUS02 KWBC 252024
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 28 2025 - 12Z THU JAN 01 2026
..OVERVIEW
POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO
THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID-WEEK REINFORCING
THE PRECEDING TROUGH. IN THE MEANTIME, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WEST. TWO SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL APPROACH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET AND 06Z GFS WERE USED IN THE DAY 3 BLEND DUE TO
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A EURO/GFS
SUITE-CENTRIC BLEND IS DEPLOYED ON DAY 4 TO RESOLVE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LOOSELY PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE CMCE AND GEFS ARE FAVORED IN THE DAY 5
BLEND DUE TO THE LINGERING PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DEPICTED IN THE EURO SUITE. EQUAL PARTS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE GFS
WERE USED ON DAY 6 DUE TO SOME CLUSTERING AROUND THE SYSTEMS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC.
THE EURO AND GFS SUITES ARE USED ON DAY 7 DUE TO REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS TO THE WEST COAST SYSTEMS AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LEADING SHALLOW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM REFLECTION AND POSSIBLE FLOW
AMPLIFICATION WITH THE DIGGING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING
INTO THE LOWER 48 WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED SNOW/ICE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE'S HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL DIVE
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER
SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD AIR TO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MAY LEAD TO RECORDS BEING TIED
OR BROKEN. COLD AIR SPILLS OUT INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN TO
THE NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES.
THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WITH RENEWED/WINDY ONSHORE FLOW, AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL RENEWED PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOCAL IN
ABOUT A WEEK LENDING INTO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S WEEK 2
FORECAST TO RING IN 2026.
KEBEDE/CAMPBELL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page