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FXUS06 KWBC 252032
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU DECEMBER 25 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2025 - JAN 04, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6â10
DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE
ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL.
THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND THE NORTH PACIFIC.
DOWNSTREAM, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ARE
FORECAST OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
A MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII DURING THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD.
ACROSS THE CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND ENHANCED MILD PACIFIC
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
REGION, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH
AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF ALASKA OUTSIDE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 6â10 DAY
PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER AND AHEAD OF THE POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY
CENTER. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST ENSEMBLE
MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, UNDER ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT
FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY), WHERE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DURING THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 02 - 08 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. AN AMPLIFIED
MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LIKELY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM, MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A MODERATELY STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH IS STILL ANTICIPATED OFF THE EAST COAST, LEADING
INTO A SECOND STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ANTICIPATED NEAR ICELAND. TO THE SOUTH, HAWAII WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DOWNSTREAM FROM A REGION OF SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, KEEPING CYCLONICALLY
CURVED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH THE STRONGEST
CHANCES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST, UNDER A PREDICTED
TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS DURING WEEK-2. AT HIGHER LATITUDES, THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGEâTROUGH COUPLET FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO ALASKA AND
WESTERN CANADA SHOULD KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF
ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE AND EXPANSE OF THE COLD AIR WILL WAX AND WANE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER ODDS THAN DURING THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST), SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THERE IS A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR KAUAI TODAY.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980102 - 20041228 - 19921227 - 20211214 - 20211222
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980102 - 20220105 - 20211221 - 20041228 - 20211215
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2025 - JAN 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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