467
FXUS06 KWBC 262002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI DECEMBER 26 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 01 - 05 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE
ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL.
THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ACROSS THE BERING SEA INTO EASTERN SIBERIA.
DOWNSTREAM, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ARE
FORECAST FROM EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A WEAK ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER
MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. A COMPARISON OF MODELS
REVEALED THE ECENS HAD THE DEEPEST ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST, WHILE THE GEFS HAD THE STRONGEST ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ACROSS THE CONUS, ENHANCED MILD PACIFIC FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES AS FAR SOUTH AS
NORTH CAROLINA, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL OF ALASKA OUTSIDE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, BASED ON NEARLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MAINLAND OF ALASKA, UNDER AND AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ODDS FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST ENSEMBLE
MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE JUST
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY, MOIST RETURN FLOW OVER MANY AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PEAK OVER 70 PERCENT IN
THE VICINITY OF ARIZONA, AND OVER 40 PERCENT IN MOST OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS, INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST TOOLS
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, SOUTH OF A MEAN
BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, THOUGH
OFFSET SOMEWHAT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS AND THE RAPID FLATTENING OF THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 03 - 09 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED (THOUGH STILL OF MODERATE INTENSITY) MEAN MID-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS FORECAST BY THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC,
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, AND BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM, MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WITH A WEAKENED EXTENSION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. FAST LOW-AMPLITUDE
FLOW WITH WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z CMCE SOLUTIONS FAVOR WEAK
ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS, BUT THE ECENS
DOES NOT. TO THE SOUTH, HAWAII WILL LIKELY REMAIN DOWNSTREAM FROM A REGION OF
SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, KEEPING CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS PROMOTED BY MOST OF
THE REFORECAST AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THOUGH THE RAW TOOLS
APPEAR TO BE TOO COLD OVERALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS PREDICTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL, WITH THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR POSSIBLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PREDICTED ONLY OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EXPECTED
RAPID DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. AT HIGHER LATITUDES, THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC, BERING SEA, AND ALASKA FAVORS
THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF ALASKA, EXCLUDING
THE ALEUTIANS. DESPITE THIS, THE MAGNITUDE AND EXPANSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR WILL WAX AND WANE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE BOLSTERED OVER HAWAII BY THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL IN WEEK-2.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST ENSEMBLE
MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. OCCASIONALLY, SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED TO
EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE EASTERN ALASKA TROUGH, MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS DESCRIBED EARLIER IN
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION, ENHANCED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, FAVORING MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20041228 - 19980103 - 20211214 - 19921228 - 20211222
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980103 - 20041228 - 20211222 - 20211216 - 19921227
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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