850
FXUS06 KWBC 272002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT DECEMBER 27 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 02 - 06 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, 0Z CMCE, AND 0Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY
CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN THAT EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, BERING SEA, AND EASTERN SIBERIA. THE ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 40N/170W, AND IS ON THE ORDER OF
210 METERS ABOVE AVERAGE. DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE DEPICTED OVER APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN THIRD OF
NORTH AMERICA. MAXIMUM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEED -120 METERS FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A WEAK
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS), AND A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A COMPARISON OF
MODELS REVEALED THAT, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF HAD THE DEEPEST ANOMALOUS
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND THE GEFS HAD THE STRONGEST ANOMALOUS RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
FOR HAWAII, THE MODELS PREDICTED A RANGE OF HEIGHT DEPARTURES FROM SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, THEREBY AVERAGING CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
ENHANCED MILD PACIFIC FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN CONUS, SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. IN ADDITION, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS PREDICTED TO BRING RELATIVELY WARM AIR NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF ALASKA
OUTSIDE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, BASED ON NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT
WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MAINLAND OF ALASKA, UNDER AND AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ODDS FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS, EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PEAK OVER 60 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE
SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, PRIMARILY
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF A WEAK
ANOMALOUS RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS
INCLUDE A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER 500-HPA
HEIGHTS) AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, SOUTH OF A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OVERALL. CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
QUICKLY DURING WEEK-2 AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC
RAPIDLY DE-AMPLIFIES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 04 - 10 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND CMCE MODELS RAPIDLY DISMANTLE THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE,
WHEREAS THE GEFS PREDICTS ONLY A COMPARATIVELY MODEST DECREASE IN FORECAST
HEIGHTS. THIS IS A VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HEIGHT FORECASTS,
AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES RAPIDLY WITH TIME DURING WEEK-2. DOWNSTREAM, MEAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH A WEAKER EXTENSION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH FAST
LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW AND BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, THE GEFS
PREDICTS A WEAK MEAN ANOMALOUS RIDGE. THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS (ECMWF AND CMCE)
FAVOR A WEAK ANOMALOUS TROUGH, BUT INFLUENCING DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, HIGHLIGHTING AN INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY. TO ADD TO
THE UNCERTAINTY, A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS PREDICTED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TO GENERATING ARCTIC AIR
MASSES (LARGELY DUE TO CLEAR, DRY SKIES AND ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING),
THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO WINTRY WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE EAST. THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT DETAILS OF ANY POTENTIAL
STORM WHICH COULD DEVELOP. OVER LOWER LATITUDES, HAWAII IS PREDICTED BY THE
VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS TO RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS, SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS
PROMOTED BY MOST OF THE REFORECAST AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE,
THOUGH THE RAW TOOLS (IN PARTICULAR FROM THE CMCE MODEL) APPEAR TO BE TOO COLD
OVERALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS (FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC) IS PREDICTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EXPECTED RAPID DE-AMPLIFICATION OF
THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 FORECAST PERIOD. AT
HIGHER LATITUDES, THE PERSISTENT RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC, BERING SEA, AND ALASKA FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS. DESPITE THIS, THE
MAGNITUDE AND EXPANSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL WAX AND WANE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE BOLSTERED OVER
HAWAII BY THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL IN WEEK-2.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, MOST OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND PART OF THE NORTH SLOPE
IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MORE DE-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN,
WITH A LARGER ZONAL COMPONENT RELATIVE TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED, MERIDIONAL FLOW
PATTERN PREDICTED DURING THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, DUE TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW. AS DESCRIBED EARLIER IN THE 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION, ENHANCED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, FAVORING MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE (2 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN TRYING TO FORECAST INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST WESTERLIES. UNCERTAINTY IS NOTABLY HIGHER IN THE MODEL
500-HPA HEIGHT FIELDS AND THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION FIELDS, WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK BASED ON BETTER TOOL AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20041229 - 19980103 - 20211223 - 20211214 - 19921228
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20041228 - 19980103 - 20211216 - 20211222 - 19921228
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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