607
FXUS06 KWBC 292013
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON DECEMBER 29 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 04 - 08 2026
MODEL ENSEMBLES FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH AMERICA AS DEPICTED IN 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE OUTSET OF THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER MODEL
SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE, LIKELY DUE TO A REORGANIZATION OF THE JET STREAM AS
THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY MANUAL BLEND FOR TODAY IS AN EQUAL WEIGHTING
OF THE ABOVE ENSEMBLES, NOT PREFERRING ANY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL SPREAD.
THE RESULTING BLEND DEPICTS LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, AN ELONGATED AREA OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING FROM ALASKA
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. WEAK RIDGING IS
INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND BROAD TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE EAST COAST.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH ODDS
EXCEEDING 80% FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. IS FAVORED FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEARBY
TROUGHING LIKELY INCREASING CLOUD COVER. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH ODDS INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII, ALTHOUGH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREFERRED FOR
THE BIG ISLAND.
CONTINUED TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CONUS WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH ODDS PEAKING OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA AT 60%. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TILTS MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48 TOWARDS NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD. THE POTENTIAL FOR ALBERTA
CLIPPERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD INTRODUCES A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER. WITH THE
BLOCKING SIBERIAN HIGH FAVORED TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE PERIOD, INCREASED
PACIFIC FLOW INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA IS FAVORED, TILTING MUCH OF THE STATE TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND. CONTINUED ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PACIFIC TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 06 - 12 2026
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING SIBERIAN RIDGE AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SUBSEQUENT SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THAT WAS INITIALLY SEEN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
PERSISTS INTO WEEK-2. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. AN
EQUAL-WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE RESULT IN A PRETTY FLAT
PATTERN, WITH SMALL, DISORGANIZED AREAS OF WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE SCATTERED
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND NEARBY OCEANS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VERY AMPLIFIED
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND GREENLAND.
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER PERIOD, ODDS ARE HIGHEST (>60-%) OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIME BLUNTS THIS FAVORED INFLOW OF MILDER WEATHER, LEAVING MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST U.S. FAVORED FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THE STRONG TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED TO FINALLY EASE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
THE PANHANDLE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND, ALTHOUGH AT MUCH LOWER ODDS (<50%) THAN
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST
FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE.
WEAK PACIFIC ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEST COAST, TILTING
MUCH OF THE CONUS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHEST ODDS (<50%)
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ALSO FAVOR A WEAKENED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, ALLOWING THE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO EXTEND
EASTWARD ROUGHLY TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUIDANCE MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A FAVORED CATEGORY. A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN COAST. HAWAII ALSO TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WITH CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5.
INCREASING SPREAD BEING SEEN IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, OFFSET BY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20041229 - 20211225 - 20211215 - 20050110 - 20221210
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20211216 - 20041228 - 20211222 - 20050108 - 19921228
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 04 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 06 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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