220
FXUS01 KWBC 011942
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EST THU JAN 01 2026
VALID 00Z FRI JAN 02 2026 - 00Z SUN JAN 04 2026
...A RETURN TO A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEST COAST TO BEGIN
2026...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...
...ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO SATURDAY DOWNWIND OF ERIE,
ONTARIO AND EASTERN SUPERIOR...
AFTER A BRIEF DRY SPELL ALONG THE WEST COAST TO END 2025, 2026
WILL SEE THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST, WHICH WILL RENEW THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ATOP AREAS WHICH HAD SEEN MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THIS AFTERNOON, THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS ATOP PORTIONS
OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT, USHERING IN A BRIEF LULL FOR THE WET WEATHER WHICH LASTS
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. HOWEVER, A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL REINVIGORATE HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWS ALONG THE ENTIRE CALIFORNIA COAST RANGES AND THROUGH THE
SIERRA. IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPCOMING ROUND, FLOOD WATCHES, WIND
ADVISORIES, AND WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
BEGINNING FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE NEW YEAR WILL START OUT RELATIVELY WARM FROM THE
WEST COAST, EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. THE MOST ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY COULD ECLIPSE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CAN EVEN EXPECT TO HEAR
RUMBLES OF THUNDER EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. IN
CONTRAST, COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST.
BEHIND TODAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE, ONTARIO AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY
SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS THESE
AREAS, LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
ASHERMAN/ORAVEC
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