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FXUS06 KWBC 012002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 01 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 11 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A VARIABLE PATTERN. A NEAR EQUAL WEIGHTED
MANUAL BLEND OF THESE THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATES A LARGE POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE
MANUAL BLEND. HOWEVER, THE GEFS PREDICTS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE IN THE 6-10 DAY AVERAGE, WHILE THE ECMWF PREDICTS LARGE
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND DAY 6 TO QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY BEFORE REDEVELOPING, WHILE THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION PERSISTS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER
THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BY ALL
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND CONSISTENT WITH
CALIBRATED ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. WITH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCREASING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, WITH DECREASING TEMPERATURES
RELATED TO A VARIABLE TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS RELATED TO SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
THE WEST AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
OF CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE STATE. UNDER AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS EXCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60
PERCENT IN SOME CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIER REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII,
SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF
FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS, OFFSET BY WILDLY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 15 2026
ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A TRANSITION IN THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER
AND NEAR ALASKA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER THE STATE. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
MANUAL BLEND, WITH GREATER POSITIVE ANOMALIES PREDICTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN THAN THE ECMWF. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT OVER THE CONUS IN TODAY'S WEEK-2 FORECASTS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S
FORECASTS. THE MANUAL BLEND PREDICTS A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING THE NORTHWEST COAST, AND A
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS UNDER PREDOMINANTLY
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASINGLY
FAVORED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING NORTHERN REGIONS, AND NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER A VARIABLE AND UNCERTAIN TROUGH IN DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED OVER ALASKA, UNDER
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM FOUR CORNERS AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, EXCLUDING ONLY THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA UP TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS AND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5.
INCREASING SPREAD BEING SEEN IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, OFFSET BY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20251229 - 20251212 - 20101214 - 20081230 - 20000115
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20251228 - 20251223 - 20251213 - 20211222 - 20000114
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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