805
FXUS01 KWBC 020725
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 AM EST FRI JAN 02 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 02 2026 - 12Z SUN JAN 04 2026
...A RETURN TO A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEST COAST TO BEGIN
2026...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STRETCH FROM THE INTERIOR WEST
TO THE PLAINS AND SOUTH WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...
...ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKES ONTARIO AND
ERIE...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, A SLOW MOVING UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST WILL HELP TO FUNNEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TOWARDS CALIFORNIA
BRINGING YET ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY (FRIDAY) ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST TODAY
WITH SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ALONG THE
RANGES NORTH OF LOS ANGELES AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN
SIERRA ON SATURDAY WHEN MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVIER SNOW WILL ALSO BEGIN FOR THE SIERRA AND
HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND AND
COOLER AIR TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME COASTAL
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS
FURTHER SOUTH, MODERATE RAINS WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES INTO SATURDAY.
ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES,
PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE, AS VERY COLD,
WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE LAKES. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IS FORECAST, LOCALLY MORE THAN A FOOT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ELSEWHERE, A QUICK MOVING UPPER-WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST BY LATER FRIDAY AND SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST AND GULF COASTS INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN AS AN UPPER-WAVE
PASSES OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AS THE UPPER-TROUGH FROM THE WEST APPROACHES LATER
SATURDAY.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
AND EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A COLD FRONT LEADING MUCH
CHILLIER AIR TO THE NORTH WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED HERE
AS WELL. FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S FOR
THE INTERIOR WEST; THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGH PLAINS, CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND SOUTHEAST; AND 70S AND 80S FOR TEXAS AND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. SOME RECORD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAIN MUCH
COLDER AND BELOW AVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
AS UPPER-TROUGHING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE WEST COAST, MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
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