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FXUS06 KWBC 022002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 02 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 08 - 12 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A VARIABLE PATTERN. A NEAR EQUAL WEIGHTED
MANUAL BLEND OF THESE THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC.
WHILE ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS PREDICT A VARIABLE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OVER THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), THE ECMWF PREDICTS MORE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE PREDICTS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO PROGRESS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WHILE THE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CONUS
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION, AS THE
RIDGE PROGRESSES FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE WEST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION IS BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS APPEAR IN PHASE, THE ECMWF MODEL PREDICTS A LESS AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EAST, COMPARED TO THE GEFS MODEL.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA,
UNDER ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE CONUS, NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS,
UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE START OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A CHANGING PATTERN. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS TO THE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES, UNDER PREDOMINANTLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, NEARLY ALL OF
MAINLAND ALASKA EXCLUDING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER
AND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AS A RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THESE
REGIONS, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED PROGRESSION OF A TROUGH AND
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION OF
CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A VARIABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 16 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIVERGE DURING
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO
DEAMPLIFY DURING THE PERIOD, AS A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TO THE EAST AMPLIFY AND EXTEND INTO MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSISTS NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE STATE FOR LONGER COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, RESULTING IN
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE ECMWF 8-14 DAY
PERIOD AVERAGE. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT AVERAGE ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA. OVER THE CONUS, THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN CONTINUES TO CHANGE
AND MODELS ARE OUT OF PHASE BY DAY 8 OR 9. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTS AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE PREDICTS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AND WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ON
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND THE NORTH COAST, UNDER A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASINGLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST, UNDER
INCREASING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. AS A RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO RISE SUCH THAT ABOVE NORMAL IS NOW
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE NEAR NORMAL WAS FAVORED IN
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. A CHANGING PATTERN LEADS TO FAVORED NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
REMAINING AREAS OF THE WEST. BELOW NORMAL IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHERE MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE MORE CONSISTENT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AHEAD OF EXPANDING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE GREAT PLAINS STATES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH
THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALL OF ALASKA, UNDER PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. WITH A
CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS
FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. CALIBRATED ECMWF
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS PREDICT LIKELY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW. IN CONTRAST, THE CALIBRATED GEFS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CONUS AND FOR MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST, A CHANGING PATTERN,
AND LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000116 - 20101214 - 20041226 - 20211220 - 20170107
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000115 - 20211221 - 20101214 - 20041227 - 20101221
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 08 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N N NEVADA B N
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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