524
FXUS01 KWBC 030757
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JAN 03 2026 - 12Z MON JAN 05 2026
...ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BRINGING HEAVY RAIN WITH THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TO CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND...
...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SUNDAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STRETCH FROM THE INTERIOR WEST
TO THE PLAINS AND SOUTH WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...
A DEEP UPPER-TROUGH WILL HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIRECT A STREAM OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE, YET ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, INTO CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
INLAND WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY TO FOCUS ON THE
TRANSVERSE RANGES NORTH OF LOS ANGELES AS WELL AS ALONG UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE SIERRA SATURDAY. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING, WITH MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FOR
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS WELL AS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS. WHILE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO
SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED UPPER-ENERGIES WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA,
WHERE ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT, WHILE MORE ISOLATED
INSTANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION TO
THE HEAVY RAINFALL, VERY HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND RANGES IN THE FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE, WITH TOTALS OF MULTIPLE FEET FORECAST. VERY GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST AS THE ENERGETIC UPPER-TROUGH AND MOISTURE MOVE
INLAND. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SEE MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX FOR LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS INLAND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL INTENSIFY
FOR THE CASCADES AS WELL AS RANGES OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BROADLY SHOULD TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO THE
DAY MONDAY.
FURTHER EAST, LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE
HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE FORECAST. THEN, A
QUICK MOVING UPPER-WAVE DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM INTO THE REGION
BY LATER SUNDAY, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT. TOTALS OF UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. THE SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO
AN END BY MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-WAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE EAST AND GULF
COASTS TODAY, WITH MOST RAINFALL ENDING BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND FROM THE INTERIOR WEST EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THESE REGIONS. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL CENTER ON
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE FORECAST HIGHS ARE
UPWARDS OF 30-40 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH A FEW
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE. FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE INTERIOR WEST, THE 50S AND 60S
FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE
CHILLY AND BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH MEAN UPPER-TROUGHING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND RANGE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE 30S AND 40S FORM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER. THE WEST COAST WILL BE
AROUND IF NOT A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES INLAND
AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
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