895
FXUS06 KWBC 032002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT JANUARY 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 13 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A VARIABLE PATTERN. A NEAR EQUAL WEIGHTED
MANUAL BLEND OF THESE THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTH
PACIFIC. ALL MODELS PREDICT AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
THE MANUAL BLEND. BY THE END OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE ECMWF, GEFS AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE DAY
6 MODEL FORECASTS PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IN ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA EXCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, UNDER ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
UNDER THE CENTER OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SUPPORTED BY THE
CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE SOUTHWEST,
AND WEST TEXAS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A CHANGING
PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, UNDER PREDOMINANTLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND SUPPORTED BY ALL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF
CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA EXCLUDING MOST OF THE WEST COAST, UNDER AND AHEAD OF
THE PREDICTED TROUGH. FOR THE CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST, EXCLUDING PARTS OF WASHINGTON STATE, AS A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. AS A TROUGH QUICKLY PROGRESSES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST, DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, RESULTING IN FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND FAVORED NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTH
TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD, EXCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A VARIABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 17 2026
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, MODELS
DIVERGE LATER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD TO DEAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST, THAT PROGRESSES EASTWARD BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
PREDICTS AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SUCH THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ARE OUT OF PHASE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
UNDER A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, UNDER INCREASING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. AS A RIDGE
PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO RISE SUCH THAT
ABOVE NORMAL IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE MIDWEST, AHEAD OF
EXPANDING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. WHILE A CHANGING PATTERN AND
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADS TO FAVORED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AND FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, SUPPORTED BY
MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII IN
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. OVER THE CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
WEST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. WITH A CHANGING CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD, WEAK PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
EASTERN AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MUCH OF TEXAS, AND SOUTH FLORIDA,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST, A CHANGING PATTERN, AND
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000116 - 20211221 - 20170107 - 20041226 - 20101216
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000116 - 20101215 - 20211221 - 20101221 - 20041227
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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