714
FXUS01 KWBC 040747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EST SUN JAN 04 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 04 2026 - 12Z TUE JAN 06 2026
...LOCALLY HEAVY COASTAL/LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE WEST COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING MODERATE SNOWS AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HEART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE...
LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED UPPER-ENERGIES ASSOCIATED
WITH BROAD-UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST AND PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR WEST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ALONG COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY, THOUGH RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD IN BOTH COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION INTO
MONDAY, LINGERING LONGEST FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LOCALLY
ELEVATED THREAT FOR MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
EXISTS ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA TODAY WHERE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A LIGHTER MIX OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FLURRIES FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE,
VERY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND
FAR NORTHERN RANGES IN CALIFORNIA WHERE TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET. THE CASCADES AND MANY OF THE RANGES OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL SUNDAY AS WELL. THE SNOW WILL ALSO TREND DOWNWARD MONDAY
FOR THE SIERRA AS WELL AS THE CASCADES WHILE REMAINING HEAVY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND SPREADING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS EMBEDDED UPPER-ENERGIES SWING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH.
TO THE EAST, A VERY FAST MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL SWING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, BRINGING A SWATH
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW TOTALS OF UP TO 4-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SWATH OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, THOUGH ANY ACCRETIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 0.1".
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS FORECAST.
MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT, WITH SOME LOCALLY
MORE MODERATE TOTALS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM LATE
MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCRETIONS INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FROM THE INTERIOR WEST EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL FOCUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD, WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AS MUCH AS 35-40 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND
SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE. FORECAST HIGHS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE INTERIOR WEST AND
SOUTHEAST, AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY DOWNSLOPING,
GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO LED TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY, AND A CRITICAL RISK (LEVEL
3/3) IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY. MUCH CHILLIER, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AS
UPPER-TROUGHING LINGERS OVERHEAD, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND THE 30S AND 40S FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AS THE UPPER-TROUGH FINALLY
DEPARTS AND FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL, WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES WARMER FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S.
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