459
FXUS06 KWBC 042007
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN JANUARY 04 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 14 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE AVERAGE
LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A VARIABLE PATTERN. A NEAR EQUAL WEIGHTED MANUAL
BLEND OF THESE THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC.
ALL MODELS PREDICT AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE
MANUAL BLEND. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AROUND DAY 6 PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, BEFORE A SECOND TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
UNDER ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SHOWS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING SOUTHERN TEXAS, THE GULF COAST STATES, AND
MOST OF GEORGIA, INFLUENCED BY EXPANDING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND VARYING LOCATIONS OF TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR THE
PLAINS STATES TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, UNDER POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SUPPORTED BY ALL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. WEAKER
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST WHERE A TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH NEAR
NORMAL FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLAND OF KAUAI, CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF MODEL TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH. FOR THE CONUS,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS INTO MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS, EXCLUDING NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
STATE, AS A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE
REGION, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. AS A TROUGH
QUICKLY PROGRESSES FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND EASTWARD, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND
ECMWF FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A VARIABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 18 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO VARIABILITY IN THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ALL
MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO DEAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD. EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A WEAKER
TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD, A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST, WITH ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. LATER IN THE
PERIOD, ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DUE TO LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
UNDER A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, UNDER INCREASING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. AS A RIDGE PERSISTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
A VARIABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN LEADS TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE TOOLS
AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH ALL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS, INCLUDING
CALIBRATED GEFS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLAND OF KAUAI, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
UNDER PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. OVER THE CONUS,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WEST, EXCLUDING MOST OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. WITH UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
PERIOD, THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AND NEAR
NORMAL IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTH FLORIDA, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE
CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COASTS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH A
VARIABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST, AND LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000118 - 20211222 - 20000113 - 20041227 - 20170107
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000117 - 20211221 - 20101216 - 20101221 - 20041227
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page