880
FXUS02 KWBC 070651
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
151 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JAN 10 2026 - 12Z WED JAN 14 2026
..OVERVIEW
A CLOSED LOW AND DEEP TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
EAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE SNOW FALL POSSIBLE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHERE ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL ALSO FLOURISH IN THE COLD
WAKE OF SYSTEM PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. ONCE THE FRONT
CLEARS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DRY
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK UNDERNEATH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE, BUT
EXPECT RENEWED RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE COUNTRY, BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE EAST, WHICH IMPACTS SURFACE LOW DEEPENING, AND FRONT/QPF
TIMING. THE GFS WAS A BIT DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVERALL, WHICH
MAKES IT A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY LOOKS TO CUT OFF FROM THIS DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO
TEXAS AS IT WEAKENS NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD RENEW DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL STATES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SMALLER SCALE ENERGIES THAT PROGRESS THROUGH THIS TROUGH. THIS
OVERALL DEEPENING TROUGH THOUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES.
THE WPC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS BASED ON A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC
MODEL BLEND FOR DAY 3-5/SATURDAY-MONDAY AMIDST GOOD ENOUGH
AGREEMENT. INCREASED WEIGHTING OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD TO HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THE LATE PERIOD
DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS VALUES ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE) WILL STREAM AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST
STATES ON SATURDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH, WITH DRIER ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, TO PRECLUDE ANY RISK AREAS ON THE DAY 5 ERO AT THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY SUNDAY, WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS FLORIDA.
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE SIGNAL IS GROWING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SATURDAY WITH 4+ INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY DOWNWIND OF
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. AFTER THIS THOUGH, MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW NUDGING INTO
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINGENT ON
INDUCED RETURN FLOW BY SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES WITH RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SOME PLACES.
MEANWHILE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY START BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD
TREND WARMER WITH TIME AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE NORTH- CENTRAL U.S. AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST BRINGING THE RETURN OF ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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