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FXCA20 KWBC 071711
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1210 PM EST WED JAN 07 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 07 JANUARY 2026 AT 1715 UTC:
A POTENT EASTWARD MOVING MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE ITS AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER JET STREAK
MAX THAT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND IT
WILL PROMOTE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE,
EXPECT THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT WHERE IT WILL EXTEND FROM
SONORA AND INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER, THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS DEFINITION.
ALSO EXPECT A MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL BE EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP
PACIFIC TROPICS TO ASSIST IN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 30MM ACROSS SONORA AND A MAXIMA OF 15
- 20MM ACROSS THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO, A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND SHALLOW THUNDERSTORMS WHERE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
MAY REACH 15MM. A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE
ACROSS THIS REGION THEREAFTER AND WILL FURTHER SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO
THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FOR
SATURDAY.
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA, THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET (CLLJ) WILL
BEGIN TO GAIN STRENGTH AFTER THURSDAY AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION
ACROSS NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA. HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVELS
WILL BE DRY AND THIS WILL ASSIST IN SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THUS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SHALLOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE MODERATE
SIDE.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR,
EXPECT THE ONGOING PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THIS REGION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAK, RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MAY FAVOR DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA IN EXCESS
OF 35MM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.
ELSEWHERE IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS
WILL BE TRAVERSING THE BASIN. THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AND WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
EXPECT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION MAXIMA TO BE LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS AND WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
PRESENT. IN THE GUIANAS AND THE AMAZON DELTA, THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THIS REGION.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS, A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS. A PERIOD OF INTEREST IS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON. A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 -
25MM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION, EXPECT SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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