993
FXUS02 KWBC 071941
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JAN 10 2026 - 12Z WED JAN 14 2026
..OVERVIEW
A DEEPENED CLOSED TROUGH/LOW WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE EAST/SOUTH. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY, WITH MODERATELY HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE ENHANCED
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL ALSO FLOURISH IN THE COLD WAKE OF SYSTEM
PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY FOR PARTS OF THE EAST. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DRY SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK UNDERNEATH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE, BUT EXPECT RENEWED
RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST, WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FAVOR
ENHANCING WINDS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/VICINITY TO MONITOR.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTION CLUSTERING HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST DAY, BOLSTERING MID-LARGER SCALE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DESPITE RECENT RUN-RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES THAT
CONTINUE TO AFFECT LOCAL TIMING AND FOCUS. A COMPOSITE BLEND OF
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN BASED MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMS PRUDENT
FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SEEMS TO PROVIDE A SOLID FORECAST BASIS WITH
LOCAL DETAIL AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LINGERING DEEPENED GULF MOISTURE (WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS VALUES
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE) WILL STREAM AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS
AND EAST COAST STATES INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
WITH DRIER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO PRECLUDE ANY RISK AREAS ON THE
DAY 4 ERO AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY
SUNDAY, WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS FLORIDA.
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE SIGNAL IS GROWING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SATURDAY WITH 4+ INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY DOWNWIND OF
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. AFTER THIS THOUGH, MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW NUDGING INTO
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINGENT ON
INDUCED RETURN FLOW BY SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES WITH RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SOME PLACES.
MEANWHILE THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MAY START BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL
TREND WARMER WITH TIME AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE MAP PROVE SLUGGISH TO BUILD
AND BE MAINTAINED INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., BUT SHOULD BRING A
RETURN OF ABOVE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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