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FXUS06 KWBC 072002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED JANUARY 07 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 17 2026
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE 0Z ECWMF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO FAVOR A RETROGRESSION OF RIDGING INITIALLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR THE
PERIOD INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH A +210 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER
JUST OFFSHORE. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ALSO EXTEND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
AND MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS DEPICTED ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
TIED TO TROUGHING FORECAST AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND GENERALLY DEPICTING BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF HAWAII.
A PATTERN TRANSITION IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS TROUGHING FAVORS A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD OVER MOST AREAS OF THE CONUS, WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ROCKIES HAVING DAILY MEAN POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF +20 DEG F. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR THE ENTIRE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE SKEWED
WARMER THAN WHAT THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST, WITH CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EMERGING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY DAY-10,
WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE SOUTHEAST.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH RIDGING. CONVERSELY RESIDUAL TROUGHING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF
REFORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING OVER HAWAII AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION FAVOR
ELEVATED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
ISLANDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO LATE DECEMBER. UNCALIBRATED MODELS
GENERALLY DEPICT LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE
WEST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, JUSTIFYING WIDESPREAD ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, INCREASING TO ABOVE 70 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN CONUS TIED TO DEVELOPING
TROUGHING LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM. PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TIED TO THE INITIAL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS REMAINS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH ENHANCED
RETURN FLOW FAVORING ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS, THE SOUTHEAST, AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITION IN THE EAST TAKES SHAPE RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED ONSHORE
FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA. TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALSO STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY A PREDICTED PATTERN TRANSITION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 21 2026
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE THE HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLUTION DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD INTO WEEK-2. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE TOWARD
WESTERN ALASKA LEADING TO DECREASING 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST, WITH A
+240 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. WHILE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING IS INITIALLY
FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE BROAD AND ELONGATED LATER IN WEEK-2, LIKELY TIED TO A
DEVELOPING NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) AROUND MID-JANUARY. THE HEIGHT
BLEND INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CALIFORNIA,
THE GREAT BASIN, AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH ALASKA. CONVERSELY, NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE
LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES (-90 METERS) OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST OVER HAWAII UNDERNEATH TROUGHING.
DURING WEEK-2, THERE IS A NOTABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES PREDICTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS TIED TO A RETROGRESSION OF RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES FURTHER OFF THE WEST COAST, AND A BROADENING OF TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE CONUS. WHILE THE REFORECAST TOOLS GENERALLY FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES,
THE UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COLDER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS GIVEN THE BEST AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED
TOOLS AND RELATIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING LONGER INTO WEEK-2.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
(EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED), WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
COLDER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHERE CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
40 PERCENT. ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ALASKA CONTINUES
TO FAVOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED
OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF GUIDANCE.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WHERE RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC FAVORS REDUCED ONSHORE
FLOW AND A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE INCREASED ABOVE 60 PERCENT OVER COASTAL OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.
INCREASING TROUGHING FAVORS ENHANCED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DUE TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES LIKELY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND AN OVERALL MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN FAVORED
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS
INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING A CONTINUED PATTERN TRANSITION ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE FEATURES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20071218 - 19890115 - 19890104 - 20020121 - 20000117
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000118 - 20071217 - 20211221 - 20000113 - 20161228
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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