974
FXUS02 KWBC 080611
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
111 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 11 2026 - 12Z THU JAN 15 2026
..OVERVIEW
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SNOW FOR THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DRY INTO NEXT WEEK UNDERNEATH
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE, BUT EXPECT RENEWED RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL U.S., WITH THE GREATEST ANOMALIES FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE THE EASTERN U.S. GENERALLY REMAINS
AROUND AVERAGE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
EASTERN U.S., ADDITIONAL UPPER-ENERGIES WILL REINFORCE MEAN
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. WITH AN UPPER-RIDGE
BUILDING IN TANDEM ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
FURTHER. THE CMC NOTABLY DIVERGES FROM THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE EARLY TO MID- NEXT WEEK AS A CLIPPER- LIKE
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, SHOWING A MUCH DELAYED
DEVELOPMENT OUT OF PHASE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE UPDATED WPC
FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GFS WITH A SMALLER
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE CMC FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THE MID- TO LATE PERIOD, THE CMC IS REMOVED GIVEN ITS
DIVERGENCE FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE, AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE 12Z
ECENS MEAN AND 18Z GEFS MEAN ARE ADDED AS DIFFERENCES RELATED TO
LESS PREDICTABLE UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVES INCREASE. THE MEANS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY RAMPED UP TO 60% OF THE BLEND FOR DAY 7 TO HANDLE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THE DISCUSSED SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REACHES THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS NOTABLY MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF, AND BOTH ARE FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES RATHER LIMITED,
ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS
PACIFIC SYSTEMS LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER-
RIDGE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO
INTERIOR NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, AND SOUTHERN-STREAM ENERGIES MAY BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND TEXAS. THE NBM QPF WAS A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR
THE UPDATED QPF FORECAST. SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR
LAKE-EFFECT ZONES DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. AFTER THIS, WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE NOTED LOCATIONS WERE APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES EXIST THAT ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE THE RATHER DRY NBM WOULD
BE DIFFICULT. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION MORE BROADLY LOOKS
LIKELY BY LATER NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY) WITH ADDITIONAL GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS CHANCES AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF AND EAST
COASTS WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED SYSTEM.
WHILE POSSIBLY A BIT LOW IN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS, THE NBM LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD COMPROMISE FOR NOW.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO LOOK TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY FOR FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT ZONES OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND WESTERN/UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH COLD,
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW IN PLACE.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BROADLY FOR THE COUNTRY LOOK RATHER LOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS ONE OR MORE PACIFIC
SYSTEMS LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-RIDGE
ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR REGIONS ALONG THE OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN
CASCADES IN WASHINGTON SUNDAY-MONDAY, THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO
REMAIN WITHIN EXPECTED LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND THERE ARE
NO OUTLOOK AREAS FOR THE DAY 4 AND 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS.
SOME MODERATE SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, ADDITIONAL UPPER-WAVES WITHIN MEAN-TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO FAVORABLE LAKE-
EFFECT ZONES OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS A MORE ORGANIZED CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
REGION, AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE GULF COAST REGION AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS MOIST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
STRONGER UPPER- WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER-
RIDGE BUILDS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THE GREATEST
ANOMALIES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TO TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING A BIT
CLOSER TO AVERAGE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. DESPITE MEAN-UPPER TROUGHING
OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LOOK TO GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE, AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. SOME BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY-MONDAY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
PUTNAM
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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