151
FXUS02 KWBC 081855
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 11 2026 - 12Z THU JAN 15 2026
..OVERVIEW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFFSHORE.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS FROM THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MID-NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST UNDER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S., WITH THE GREATEST ANOMALIES FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS, WHILE THE EASTERN U.S. REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST AND A
CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE CMC, WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MORE ELONGATED STRUCTURE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE CMC FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FALL CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS.
WPC'S AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS CREATED FROM A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
BLEND, WITH MORE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN THE CMC,
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS WERE ADDED TO HELP
SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES MID-NEXT WEEK. THIS SERVED AS A GOOD
STARTING POINT THAT WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE NBM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO LOOK TO LINGER INTO
SUNDAY FOR FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT ZONES OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
WESTERN/UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH COLD, WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NEW ENGLAND AND THE GREAT
LAKES.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL SEE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR REGIONS ALONG THE OLYMPICS AND
NORTHERN CASCADES IN WASHINGTON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH AMOUNTS
LOOK TO REMAIN WITHIN EXPECTED LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND
THERE ARE NO OUTLOOK AREAS FOR THE DAY 4 AND 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKS. MODERATE SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, ADDITIONAL UPPER-WAVES WITHIN MEAN-TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO FAVORABLE
LAKE-EFFECT ZONES OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS A MORE ORGANIZED CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
GULF COAST REGION AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST MID-NEXT WEEK
AS MOIST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER-WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AS AN
UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THE
GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TO TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING
A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. DESPITE MEAN-UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LOOK TO
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE, AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY-MONDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
DOLAN/PUTNAM
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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