437
FXUS02 KWBC 090646
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
VALID 12Z MON JAN 12 2026 - 12Z FRI JAN 16 2026
..OVERVIEW
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS FROM THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MID-NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST UNDER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE, WITH THE
GREATEST ANOMALIES FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST IS BELOW AVERAGE UNDER THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ISSUES INCREASE WITH TIME, AS
USUAL. WPC'S MORNING PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE CREATED FROM A
DETERMINISTIC 00Z MODEL BLEND, WITH AN INCREASE IN ENSEMBLE MEAN
USAGE FROM THE 00Z NAEFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS LATER ON TO
HELP SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES MID NEXT WEEK. THIS SERVED AS A
GOOD STARTING POINT THAT SHOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE 01Z NBM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL SEE
INCREASING PRECIPITATION AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR REGIONS ALONG THE
OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN CASCADES IN WASHINGTON INTO MONDAY, THOUGH
AMOUNTS LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE OUTLOOK AREAS FOR THE DAY 4
AND 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS. MODERATE SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, ADDITIONAL UPPER-WAVES WITHIN MEAN-TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO FAVORABLE
LAKE-EFFECT ZONES OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS A MORE ORGANIZED CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
GULF COAST REGION AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST MID-NEXT WEEK
AS MOIST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER-WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AS AN
UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THE
GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TO TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING
A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. DESPITE MEAN-UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LOOK TO
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEXT
WEEK.
ROTH/DOLAN
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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