292
FOUS11 KWBC 091959
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
VALID 00Z SAT JAN 10 2026 - 00Z TUE JAN 13 2026
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
DAY 1...
CLOSED LOW EXITING THE CO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER
00Z BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH KANSAS AND INTO
MISSOURI.
..GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1-3...
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONGER FORMING
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA TOMORROW MORNING, FAVORING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF SNOW WILL ENVELOPE THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF HEAVY
SNOW BENEATH THE DEVELOPING TROWAL THAT SETS UP OVER THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY ENDING THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FOR MICHIGAN WITH A
SHORT LAKE-ENHANCED/EFFECT PERIOD OF SNOW. ON ITS HEELS WILL BE
ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW OF AROUND AN INCH. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND ARE AROUND
50% IN THE PORCUPINE AND HURON MOUNTAINS IN THE U.P. AND
NORTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THREE-DAY TOTALS COULD ECLIPSE 8
INCHES IN FAVORED AREAS (30-50% CHANCE).
FRACASSO
..NORTHEAST & CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
DAYS 1-3...
THE SAME STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE A HAZARDOUS
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND HEAVY SNOW IN NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG >750KG/M/S IVT WILL DIRECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COASTLINE. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL INJECT
JUST ENOUGH COLD/DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH CREATING A WEAK CAD SIGNATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HEALTHY 850-700MB WAA WILL SUPPORT A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SETUP
OF >0C AIR ALOFT CAUSING A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO
UNFOLD BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WITH A
DEVELOPING SECONDARY COASTAL LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR SUB- FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST
LONGER. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE FOR HEAVIER SNOW IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A 700-300MB DRY SLOT THAT COULD SAP
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ ALOFT OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT/NH.
THUS, THE MAIN HAZARD OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR MAINE,
IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FREEZING RAIN.
STILL, WHETHER IT IS ICE OR SNOW, MANY OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN
RANGES SUCH AS THE CATSKILLS, BERKSHIRES, GREENS, ADIRONDACKS, AND
WHITES ARE FAVORED TO SEE THE HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER ON
SUNDAY, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DOWN WIND
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHILE NORTHERN MAINE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
TO SEE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WPC PROBABILITIES INDICATE MODERATE CHANCES (60-80%) FOR MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES,
GREENS, ADIRONDACKS, AND WHITES AND HAVE INCREASED WITH THIS
FORECAST ITERATION. LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR ICE GREATER THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES. REGARDING SNOWFALL, WPC PROBABILITIES FOR >4"
ARE MODERATE- (70-90%) OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN/WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN MAINE. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR WITNESSING
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES (10-30%) FOR
SNOWFALL TOTALS >8". WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN WAKE
OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, THE TUG HILL AND CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE ARE SPORTING MODERATE-TO- HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) FOR LOCALIZED
SNOWFALL TOTALS >4" THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY, SNOW SQUALLS AND UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL IS
LIKELY. A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS AS THEY SWING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH MORE SNOW LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
WPC PROBABILITIES FOR >4" ARE 20-50% ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES OF
WESTERN MD AND WV.
SNELL
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