405
FXUS02 KWBC 092000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
VALID 12Z MON JAN 12 2026 - 12Z FRI JAN 16 2026
..OVERVIEW
GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS FROM THE INTERIOR WEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST, BUT MOIST LEAD FLOW WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY FOCUSING PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MID-LATER NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST UNDER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
GIVEN OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN SUPPORT, THERE IS ALSO AN
INCREASING, BUT STILL UNCERTAIN SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL LATER NEXT
WEEK COASTAL LOW GENESIS UP THE EAST COAST TO MONITOR. MEANWHILE IN
THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RE-EMERGING PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE, WITH THE GREATEST ANOMALIES FOR
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW AVERAGE UNDER THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED
FEATURE DIFFERENCES AND LOCAL FOCUS VARIANCES SLOWLY INCREASING
WITH TIME. WPC'S MEDIUM-RANGE PRESSURES/FRONTS PROGS WERE CREATED
FROM A DETERMINISTIC 00/06 UTC MODEL BLEND VALID FOR MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ADDING INTO THE MIX GUIDANCE FROM COMPATIBLE
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO HELP SMOOTH OUT GROWING MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THIS SEEMS TO PROVIDE A GOOD FORECAST STARTING POINT
MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NBM. WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY SEEMS WELL
MAINTAINED, BUT GIVEN ANOMALOUS AND FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN
PREDICTABILITY, ADDED FOR MESSAGING A MODERATELY ORGANIZED COASTAL
LOW TRACK UP/OFF THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK TO MONITOR. LATEST
12 UTC CYCLE GUIDANCE TRENDS REMAIN IN LINE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL SEE
INCREASING PRECIPITATION AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR REGIONS ALONG THE
OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN CASCADES IN WASHINGTON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE OUTLOOK AREAS FOR THE
DAY 4 AND 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS. MODERATE SNOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, ADDITIONAL UPPER-WAVES WITHIN MEAN-TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO FAVORABLE
LAKE-EFFECT ZONES OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS A MORE ORGANIZED CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
GULF COAST REGION AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST MID-NEXT WEEK
AS MOIST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER-WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GROWING POTENTIAL FOR STILL UNCERTAIN COASTAL
LOW GENESIS AT THIS POINT DOES OFFER A THREAT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
AND INTENSITVE SYSTEM IMPACT ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST TO MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK WILL
TREND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AS AN
UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THERE IS
ALSO SOME INDICATION FOR ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY TO MONITOR. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 15
TO 20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY TO TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY. DESPITE MEAN-UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN
SEASONAL. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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