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FXUS06 KWBC 092002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 09 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 19 2026
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE 0Z ECWMF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO FAVOR RIDGING INITIALLY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. DYNAMICAL MODELS
DEPICT A GREATER PERSISTENCE OF THIS RIDGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, PARTICULARLY
THE 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. WHILE THE 0Z GEFS SHOWS MORE RETROGRESSION
OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE PACIFIC, POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATED ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH DAY-10. DOWNSTREAM, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THE MANUAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT BLEND FOR THE PERIOD INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS INCREASING IN
MAGNITUDE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH A +270 METER POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER JUST OFFSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ALSO
EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TIED TO TROUGHING. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE TROUGHING BEGINS TO LIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF
HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST, WITH ANTECEDENT WARMER TEMPERATURES TIMING OFF FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING. ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF COAST REGIONS. CONVERSELY, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN A LONGER
PERSISTENCE OF RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MODELS. INITIALLY
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES (+15 TO +25 DEG ABOVE-NORMAL) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DRIVES PROBABILITIES HIGHER IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY COLDER AIR IS
LIKELY TO FILTER INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
RESULTING IN A TIGHT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT IN PROBABILITIES. CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH RIDGING. RESIDUAL TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD
TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF ALASKA. THE CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST SUPPORTS A TILT TOWARD ENHANCED
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO LATE DECEMBER. UNCALIBRATED MODELS
GENERALLY DEPICT LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE
WEST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, JUSTIFYING WIDESPREAD ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, INCREASING TO ABOVE 70 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TIED TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING LEADING
TO A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE MEAN FLOW, WITH
ONLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF TEXAS AND FLORIDA TILTING TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST OR OFF THE EAST
COAST DURING THE PERIOD AS THE TROUGHING AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION, WITH A
CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SYSTEM AROUND THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND
ANOTHER CLOSER TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, WITH A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO
POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST, AND MORE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 23 2026
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN WEEK-2 LEADING TO INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM,
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE EAST, WITH THE LARGEST
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME
EXPANSION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ITS WAKE. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION,
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OR A WEAK TROUGH,
THE 0Z GEFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2. AS A RESULT, THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS DRIVEN BY
PATTERNS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST OVER HAWAII UNDERNEATH
TROUGHING.
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING WEEK-2 BASED ON GOOD SUPPORT
AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS AND CONSISTENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS LONGER INTO
WEEK-2. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN CONUS
WHERE THE STRONGER TROUGH AS DEPICTED IN THE GEFS WOULD SUPPORT COLDER
TEMPERATURES BUILDING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INDICATED OVER THIS AREA FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. RIDGING OVER THE BERING
SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND A POTENTIAL RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE LATER IN THE PERIOD
AS EVIDENCED THROUGH TELECONNECTIONS. HOWEVER, THE GEFS CENTERS THIS RIDGE MORE
ACROSS ALASKA WHICH WOULD PERSIST THE WARMER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
THEREFORE, ONLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER HAWAII.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING EARLY IN WEEK-2. THERE MAY BE
AN UPTICK IN ONSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD AS RIDGING MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO
THE PACIFIC, AND ESPECIALLY IF MORE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. WEAK
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, AND ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TIER. A BROAD AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS INCREASED OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE MAINLAND
UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
DECREASING MODEL AGREEMENT BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890116 - 20151221 - 20161227 - 20020122 - 20071220
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890116 - 20071219 - 20020122 - 20161228 - 20090101
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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