910
FOUS11 KWBC 101934
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 11 2026 - 00Z WED JAN 14 2026
..GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1-2...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING WILL PROJECT
HEALTHY PVA OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AS WELL AS STRONG 700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN MI AND MI'S UPPER PENINSULA (U.P.). A
PLUME OF 700-300MB MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF
THE 700MB LOW WILL COINCIDE WITHIN A TROWAL THAT FOCUSES A BAND OF
MODERATE-TO-HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LAKE-EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUING EARLY SUNDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE
OF NORTHERLY FLOW AFFECTS THE REGION. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANYWHERE
FROM 4-8" OF SNOWFALL AS FAR WEST AS THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS OF
MI'S WESTERN U.P. TO THE HURONS IN THE HEART OF THE U.P. AND MUCH
OF THE EASTERN U.P.. FARTHER SOUTH, THE NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS OF
MICHIGAN'S MITTEN ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE 4-8" OF SNOWFALL AS WELL,
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS TOPPING 10" POSSIBLE WHERE LAKE-ENHANCED
SNOW BANDS STICK AROUND LONGEST. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 1-4" ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST OF WI AND THE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES OF
MI. THE WSSI SHOWS MINOR IMPACTS ACROSS ALL THESE REGIONS,
SUGGESTING RESIDENTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTEND WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LASTLY, WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL TRIGGER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WPC PROBABILITIES DEPICT
MODERATE-TO- HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL >4" THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND WHITES ON MONDAY, BUT ASIDE FROM THE TUG HILL WHERE
UP TO 6" IS POSSIBLE, SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A COATING
TO 2" THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
..NORTHEAST
DAYS 1-2...
ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE APPROACHING GREAT LAKES STORM SYSTEM, A
STRONG IVT TOPPING 750 KG/M/S AND AN ADVANCING 925-700MB WAA WILL
PROVIDE RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND
NEW ENGLAND. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST COMMON THROUGH TONIGHT IN
THE POCONOS, CATSKILLS, ADIRONDACKS, BERKSHIRES, AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS. LATEST WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW MODERATE CHANCRES (40-60%)
FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND BERKSHIRES, WHEREAS THE REST OF THE LISTED
AREAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WITNESS ICE ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH. FARTHER NORTH, SNOW WILL BE THE MORE COMMON
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE. THIS IS DUE TO THEIR LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK OF THE PRIMARY LOW IN ONTARIO, AND
THEIR PLACEMENT NORTH OF A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE COASTAL LOW WILL DEEPEN SOUTHWEST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON
SUNDAY AND SUPPORT A DEFORMATION ZONE OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN
MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF BY MONDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
MAINE. WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) FOR SNOWFALL
TOTALS >6" IN NORTHERN MAINE WITH LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS NEAR CARIBOU THAT COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS A FOOT
OF SNOW. STILL, GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGY OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THESE
NORTHERN LOCATIONS, ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ARE BEING DEPICTED FROM THE
WSSI.
..OHIO VALLEY & CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
DAYS 1-2...
THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
OTHER WINTER RELATED HAZARDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500MB VORT MAX, A SHARP LOW-
LEVEL COLD FRONT AND HEALTHY PVA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SNOW SQUALLS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR WEST AS IOWA THAT
RACE EAST TOWARDS NORTHERN IL AND IN THIS EVENING. SNOW SQUALLS
WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND REACH THE UPPER
OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PER THE
12Z CAMS AND FORECAST SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF A COATING TO 1" ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE CONCERN IS RAPID
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW RATES
AND GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET BELOW
FREEZING AND COULD SUPPORT QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND A
FLASH FREEZE ON ROADS. SOME SNOW SQUALLS MAY ALSO REACH PAST THE
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/INTERIOR NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOTORISTS SHOULD
ENSURE THEY HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE ALERTS FOR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS
SHOULD THEY BE ISSUED AND UNDERSTAND THE RISKS OF DRIVING DURING A
SNOW SQUALL.
MEANWHILE, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND SNOW SQUALLS REACH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY MORNING, UPSLOPE NWRLY FLOW WILL
FOSTER HEAVY MOUNTAINS SNOW IN THE POTOMAC AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW MODERATE-TO-
HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS >4". LASTLY, WESTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU SUNDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WPC PROBABILITIES DEPICT MODERATE-TO- HIGH
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL >4" THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND
WHITES ON MONDAY, BUT ASIDE FROM THE TUG HILL, SNOWFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A COATING TO 2" THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SNELL/MULLINAX
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