147
FXUS02 KWBC 101957
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 13 2026 - 12Z SAT JAN 17 2026
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH
AMPLE SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED FEATURE DIFFERENCES AND LOCAL FOCUS
VARIANCES INCREASING WITH TIME. WPC'S MEDIUM-RANGE PRESSURES/FRONTS
PROGS WERE CREATED FROM A WELL CLUSTERED MULTI-MODEL COMPOSITE
NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE ADDING INTO THE MIX GUIDANCE FROM
THE BEST COMPATIBLE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AT LONGER TIME FRAMES TO
HELP SMOOTH OUT GROWING MODEL DIFFERENCES, HOPEFULLY AS CONSISTENT
WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY. COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN, THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHADE SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE
TOWARD DIGGING ENERGY FARTHER WESTWARD OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S.
LATE NEXT WEEK AND THAT IDEA, INCLUDING ROCKIES SNOW POTENTIAL,
CHAMPIONED BY SOME RECENT GFS/CMC MODEL RUNS, SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ANOMOLOUS AMPLITUDE WITH UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS OVERALL PLAN SEEMS TO PROVIDE A GOOD FORECAST STARTING
POINT AND APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE 13 UTC NBM, BUT 12 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE MIXED THROUGH LESS CERTAIN LONGER TIME FRAMES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT/CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING WITHIN MEAN-TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO FAVORABLE
LAKE-EFFECT ZONES OF THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
GULF COAST REGION/FLORIDA AND NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST MID-
LATER NEXT WEEK AS MOIST RETURN FLOW ATTEMPTS TO RETURN WITH UPPER
SYSTEM ENERGY PASSAGES. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR COASTAL LOW
GENESIS NEAR/OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF A WEATHER HAZARD MAY DEVELOP DESPITE
FAVORABLE LARGER SCALE FLOW TO MONITOR FOR A CLEARER SIGNAL.
TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER-RIDGE
BUILDS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST, POSSIBLY MODERATING
FRONM THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PUSH LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. THERE IS
ALSO SOME INDICATION FOR ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY TO MONITOR GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE
GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE MEAN-UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LOOK TO
GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SEASONAL TO BELOW, BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO LATER NEXT WEEK.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page