674
FXUS06 KWBC 102002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT JANUARY 10 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 16 - 20 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY
CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). DOWNSTREAM,
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF HAWAII DURING THE 6â10
DAY PERIOD.
ACROSS THE CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. CONVERSELY,
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST, WITH ANTECEDENT WARMER TEMPERATURES TIMING OFF FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING. ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF COAST REGIONS. CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH RIDGING. RESIDUAL
TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF ALASKA. THE CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST
SUPPORTS A TILT TOWARD ENHANCED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN-MOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO LATE DECEMBER. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT
FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MAINE, WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE INCREASED TIED TO DEVELOPING TROUGHING LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA,
WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WHERE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT. IN HAWAII, TROUGHING AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HAWAII
DURING THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 18 - 24 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. RIDGING
INITIALLY OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM, TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT
OUT OF THE EAST, WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME EXPANSION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS DRIVEN BY PATTERNS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE EAST SEABOARD, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN
FORECAST OVER HAWAII UNDERNEATH TROUGHING.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS, GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS LONGER
INTO WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST CHANCES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH AND EASTERN COLORADO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, UNDER A PREDICTED
TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS DURING WEEK-2. RIDGING OVER THE BERING
SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND A POTENTIAL RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA LATER IN THE PERIOD,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MISSOURI, ARKANSAS, AND PARTS OF MONTANA EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO NORTH
DAKOTA, MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PARTS OF
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE MAINLAND UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS
HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070105 - 19890116 - 20151222 - 20161227 - 20140111
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890115 - 20070107 - 20161226 - 20151220 - 20020123
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 16 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 18 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page