741
FXUS02 KWBC 110703
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
VALID 12Z WED JAN 14 2026 - 12Z SUN JAN 18 2026
...CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BRING A WINTRY MIX WITH POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
NEAR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. THERE'S MORE OF A QPF SIGNAL WITH THE LOW EXPECTED FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND, SO TRENDED UPWARD
FROM CONTINUITY; TRACK AND DEPTH ALOFT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY (THE CANADIAN
HAS INCREASINGLY BECOME AN OUTLIER HERE).
THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY TO FORECAST A TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH MOVES INTO MEXICO AND HELPS
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DOWNSTREAM NEAR A RELATED CYCLONE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE THIS POSSIBILITY REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO, THE GFS'S DAY TO DAY CONSISTENCY HERE IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON, REGARDLESS OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
IMPROBABILITY OF SUCH A SCENARIO IN JANUARY.
WPC'S MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE CREATED FROM A 00Z
DETERMINISTIC MODEL COMPOSITE THAT WAS WEIGHTED LESS ON THE
CANADIAN THAN USUAL BEFORE ADDING IN SOME 10/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z
NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTRIBUTION TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND TO HELP
SMOOTH OUT ANY DETAIL ISSUES (SUCH AS THE VERY DEEP ECMWF CYCLONE
IN ONTARIO AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD). THIS OVERALL PLAN
SEEMS TO PROVIDE A GOOD FORECAST STARTING POINT AND APPEARS
CONSISTENT WITH THE 01 UTC NBM, THOUGH WITH A BETTER SIGNAL WITH
THE LOW NEAR/OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO CHANGES IN THE GRIDS/NBM DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT/CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING WITHIN AND THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
SKIRMISHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND
APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE IS GETTING MORE AGREEABLE ON
THE SURFACE DEPTH OF A MID- ATLANTIC CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT QPF SPREAD IS LARGE AND EXACT
TRACK/DEPTH REMAINS VARIABLE. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY WHICH TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH THE
DEGREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW. THIS FLOW IS ONE OF LESS
FORECAST CERTAINTY AS IT IS COMPLEX WITH A COLD LOW TO ITS NORTH
AND A KICKER SHORTWAVE NOT THAT FAR OFF TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST.
FLORIDA EARLY AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATE SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTRUSION FROM THE GULF FOR RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES MID-NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS AND
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST, POSSIBLY MODERATING FROM THE NORTH
WITH FRONTAL PUSH LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME
INDICATION FOR ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
VICINITY TO MONITOR GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE UPPER TROUGHING
OVERHEAD KEEPS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST BELOW AVERAGE,
ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
ROTH
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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